Abstract:This paper presents a novel approach to the modelling of electrical energy demand forecasting, based on the Quasi-Moment-Method (QMM). The technique, using historical energy consumption/demand data, essentially calibrates nominated ‘base’ models (in this case, nominal Harvey and Autoregressive models) to provide significantly better performing models. In addition to the novelty of the use of QMM, the paper identifies hitherto unreported singularities of the generic Harvey / logistic model, through which a simp… Show more
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