A quasi-experimental synthetic control evaluation of a place-based police-directed patrol intervention on violent crime

Rydberg, Jason; McGarrell, Edmund F.; Norris, Alexis; Circo, Giovanni

doi:10.1007/s11292-018-9324-8

Cited by 17 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…It is worth noting that this overcomes a problem typically faced by retrospective violence prevention evaluations, where the target was typically chosen because of its disproportionately high rate of violence. Overall, the correspondence between Rockford and its BSTS comparison is similar to that produced by other synthetic control-based approaches (Rydberg et al, 2018; Saunders et al, 2015).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 71%

“…Subsequently, the use of this counterfactual enabled the recovery of treatment effects, even in the presence of endogenous change. The BSTS approach and related synthetic control methods (Ratcliffe et al, 2017; Rydberg et al, 2018) have demonstrated recent successes in impact evaluations, and their utilization here adds to this literature, suggesting its utility in retrospective, quasi-experimental designs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Specifically, this study employs BSTS models to construct a counterfactual estimate of what would have happened to gun and non-gun violence in Rockford had the intervention never been implemented (Brodersen et al, 2015; Ratcliffe et al, 2017). Originally developed by Brodersen and colleagues (2015) to assess impacts of marketing interventions, the method combines concepts from state-space time-series models and synthetic control methods (Abadie, Diamond, & Hainmueller, 2015; Rydberg, McGarrell, Norris, & Circo, 2018) to construct a synthetic counterfactual time series from a donor pool of control cases. An estimate for the average treatment effect (ATT) on the treated cases can be produced from the relative or absolute difference between the outcome time series for the actual treatment unit and that of its synthetic counterfactual (Morgan & Winship, 2007).…”

Section: The Current Inquirymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3 The impact is specifically estimated using a synthetic control based only on the temporal trends of the dependent variables across potential comparisons, allowing us to control for endogenous change (de Vocht, 2016; Freire, 2018). While this approach is relatively new, it has been used to evaluate police interventions in at least three other studies (Freire, 2018; Liu & Fabbri, 2016; Ratcliffe et al, 2017), and the family of synthetic control methods to which it belongs have recently been forwarded as effective means of evaluating impact in criminal justice contexts (Robbins, Saunders, & Kilmer, 2017; Rydberg et al, 2018; Saunders, Lundberg, Braga, Ridgeway, & Miles, 2015). However, these past studies use a relatively small donor pool of comparisons to construct their counterfactuals, ranging from one to six comparison areas.…”

Section: The Current Inquirymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence

Clark-Moorman

Rydberg

McGarrell

2018

Criminal Justice Policy Review

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We estimate the impact of a parolee-based focused deterrence (“pulling levers”) intervention on community-level firearm and non-firearm violence in Rockford, Illinois, via a retrospective, quasi-experimental design. Focusing on incidents of firearm violence in Rockford over a period of 60 months (38 months pre-intervention, 22 months post-intervention), program impact is assessed using Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models, constructing a synthetic control-based counterfactual time series from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 59 non-treated cities of similar size. Relative to the synthetic control counterfactual, the intervention was associated with significant reductions in both firearm and non-firearm violence, particularly robberies, ranging from 6% to 30%. Consistent with research at other sites, these findings support the notion that focused deterrence strategies centered on high-risk parolees may result in reductions in firearm violence at the community level. The BSTS approach is a useful application for producing counterfactuals in retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: The Current Inquirymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Current Inquirymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence

Clark-Moorman

Rydberg

McGarrell

2018

Criminal Justice Policy Review

Self Cite

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“…To evaluate whether the opening of the substation generated a crime reduction, it is important to incorporate reasonable control areas. This was accomplished via the microsynthetic control method , which has been applied in similar fashion recently in evaluations of place‐based interventions (Connealy, Piza, & Hatten, 2019; Robbins, Saunders, & Kilmer, 2017; Rydberg, McGarrell, Norris, & Circo, 2018; Saunders, Lundberg, Braga, Ridgeway, & Miles, 2015). This was used, as opposed to propensity score matching (e.g., Braga, Hureau, & Papachristos, 2012; Haberman, Clutter, & Henderson, 2018; Piza, 2018a; Zakrzewski, Wheeler, & Thompson, 2019), mainly because street units subjected to the treatment are clustered into one area, so it does not make sense to evaluate crime reductions from street unit to street unit.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crime control effects of a police substation within a business improvement district: A quasi‐experimental synthetic control evaluation

Piza

Wheeler²,

Connealy

et al. 2020

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary: The current study analyzes the crime reduction effect of a police substation operating within a business improvement district in Newark, New Jersey.Synthetic control methods were used to create a control group that was statistically equivalent to the cumulative street units in the target area. Significant reductions of burglary and motor vehicle theft were observed in the target area as compared with a synthetic control area over the postintervention period. Robbery and theft from auto, conversely, suffered from spatial displacement. Of the six police actions included in the process evaluation, qualityof-life summonses and directed patrols increased in the postintervention period, whereas parking summonses significantly decreased. Policy Implications:The results of this study suggest that the effect of substations on crime likely depends on certain contextual factors. Newark's substation was not a standalone facility, but the headquarters of a police unit given jurisdiction over the target area. Therefore, the opening of the substation represented an increase in visible police presence. The effect of the substation was heightened when accompanied by increases in proactive policing activities. Agencies wishing to effectively address robbery and theft 13 See https://landscan.ornl.gov/frequently-asked-questions. ORCID Eric L. Piza

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Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime

Braga

Turchan

Papachristos

et al. 2019

Campbell Systematic Reviews

103

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Background In recent years, crime scholars and practitioners have pointed to the potential benefits of focusing crime prevention efforts on crime places. A number of studies suggest that there is significant clustering of crime in small places, or “hot spots,” that generate half of all criminal events. Researchers have argued that many crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention to these deviant places. The appeal of focusing limited resources on a small number of high‐activity crime places is straightforward. If crime can be prevented at these hot spots, then citywide crime totals could be reduced. Objectives To assess the effects of focused police crime prevention interventions at crime hot spots. The review also examined whether focused police actions at specific locations result in crime displacement (i.e., crime moving around the corner) or diffusion (i.e., crime reduction in surrounding areas) of crime control benefits. Search Methods A keyword search was performed on 15 abstract databases. Bibliographies of past narrative and empirical reviews of literature that examined the effectiveness of police crime control programs were reviewed and forward searches for works that cited seminal hot spots policing studies were performed. Bibliographies of past completed Campbell systematic reviews of police crime prevention efforts were reviewed and hand searches of leading journals in the field were completed. Experts in the field were consulted and relevant citations were obtained. Selection Criteria To be eligible for this review, interventions used to control crime hot spots were limited to police‐led prevention efforts. Suitable police‐led crime prevention efforts included traditional tactics such as directed patrol and heightened levels of traffic enforcement as well as alternative strategies such as aggressive disorder enforcement and problem‐oriented policing. Studies that used randomized controlled experimental or quasiexperimental designs were selected. The units of analysis were limited to crime hot spots or high‐activity crime “places” rather than larger areas such as neighborhoods. The control group in each study received routine levels of traditional police crime prevention tactics. Data Collection and Analysis Sixty‐five studies containing 78 tests of hot spots policing interventions were identified and full narratives of these studies were reported. Twenty‐seven of the selected studies used randomized experimental designs and 38 used quasiexperimental designs. A formal meta‐analysis was conducted to determine the crime prevention effects in the eligible studies. Random effects models were used to calculate mean effect sizes. Results Sixty‐two of 78 tests of hot spots policing interventions reported noteworthy crime and disorder reductions. The meta‐analysis of key reported outcome measures revealed a small statistically significant mean effect size favoring the effects of hot spots policing in reducing crime outcomes at treatment places relative to...

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A quasi-experimental synthetic control evaluation of a place-based police-directed patrol intervention on violent crime

Cited by 17 publications

References 42 publications

Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence

Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence

Crime control effects of a police substation within a business improvement district: A quasi‐experimental synthetic control evaluation

Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime

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