A quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the efficacy of mitigation strategies to reduce highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in the Menoufia governorate, Egypt

Abstract

Background The poultry industry in Egypt has been suffering from endemic highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1 since 2006. However, the emergence of H9N2, H5N8, and H5N2 in 2011, 2016, and 2019 respectively, has aggravated the situation. Our objective was to evaluate how effective are the mitigation strategies by a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) model which used daily outbreak data of HPAI-H5N1 subtype in Egypt, stratified by different successive epidemic waves from 2006 to 2016. Results By applying the epidemiologic problem-oriented approach methodology, a conceptual scenario tree was drawn based on the knowledgebase. Monte Carlo simulations of QRA parameters based on outbreak data were performed using @Risk software based on a scenario-driven decision tree. In poultry farms, the expected probability of HPAI H5N1 prevalence is 48% due to failure of mitigation strategies in 90% of the time during Monte Carlo simulations. Failure of efficacy of these mitigations will raise prevalence to 70% with missed vaccination, while failure in detection by surveillance activities will raise it to 99%. In backyard poultry farms, the likelihood of still having a high HPAI-H5N1 prevalence in different poultry types due to failure of passive and active surveillance varies between domestic, mixed and reservoir. In mixed poultry, the probability of HPAI-H5N1 not detected by surveillance was the highest with a mean and a SD of 16.8 × 10–3 and 3.26 × 10–01 respectively. The sensitivity analysis ranking for the likelihood of HPAI-H5N1 in poultry farms due to missed vaccination, failure to be detected by passive and active surveillance was examined. Among poultry farms, increasing vaccination by 1 SD will decrease the prevalence by 14%, while active and passive surveillance decreases prevalence by 12, and 6%, respectively. In backyard, the active surveillance had high impact in decreasing the prevalence by 16% in domestic chicken. Whereas the passive surveillance had less impact in decreasing prevalence by 14% in mixed poultry and 3% in domestic chicken. Conclusion It could be concluded that the applied strategies were not effective in controlling the spread of the HPAI-H5N1 virus. Public health officials should take into consideration the evaluation of their control strategies in their response.

Spatio-temporal analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI (H5N1) in poultry in Menofia governorate, Egypt

“…1. The epidemic curve in Meno a follows the same patterns of six Egyptian epidemic waves according to previously published studies by [19,49], and a global study by [50]. There is a noninterpreted epidemic cycle of the disease with the peak of the outbreaks at each EW usually found in December and January.…”

“…Besides, the Egyptian veterinary authorities should evaluate their control strategies continuously and test them frequently with real eld data [49]. While it is exceedingly challenging to get con rmed data of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks that represent the real eld situation to be utilized in such epidemiological studies due to lack of noti cation, indirect effects of vaccination strategies, and/or compensation measures [19,30,49,60,61]. *Vertical axis represents the cities, while horizontal axis represents the total no.…”

“…This constitutes the need for the establishment of effective disease control strategies at the subdistrict level within each governorate based on a better understanding of the endemicity dynamics. Besides, the Egyptian veterinary authorities should evaluate their control strategies continuously and test them frequently with real eld data [49]. While it is exceedingly challenging to get con rmed data of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks that represent the real eld situation to be utilized in such epidemiological studies due to lack of noti cation, indirect effects of vaccination strategies, and/or compensation measures [19,30,49,60,61].…”

"Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Risk Cluster Analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI (H5N1) in Poultry: Advancing Outbreak Management through Customized Regional Strategies in Egypt"

“…The duration of each EW ranged from 3, 5, 3, 38, 7, and 39 months, as depicted in Figure 1. Notably, the epidemic curve within Meno a governorate closely mirrored the temporal patterns observed in Egypt's broader epidemiological landscape, as elucidated by previous research conducted by [7,14], and a global study by [44].…”

“…Egypt stands out with the highest number of HPAI H5N1 noti cations of positive human cases [4,5] and is considered a signi cant epicenter for HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Africa [6]. Despite persistent governmental efforts to curtail its dissemination, previous publications have revealed the insu ciency of applied strategies in effectively controlling the HPAI-H5N1 virus [7]. As a result, HPAI H5N1 remains entrenched and exerts severe repercussions on both the poultry sector and public health [8,9].…”