A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014

Abstract

Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far.

The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic

“…Mean shipping activity (kilometers traveled) in the Canadian Arctic from 1990 to 2015 occurred primarily in regions of north Hudson Bay, the Hudson Strait, Davis Strait, Baffin Bay, Lancaster Sound, and the south Beaufort Sea (Figure a). The spatial distribution is similar to the pattern illustrated by Eguíluz et al [] based on AIS data from 2010 to 2014. Regions of high shipping activity typically correspond to areas of lighter sea ice concentration, as the majority of high sea ice concentration is located in central CAA and the north regions of Beaufort Sea (Figure c).…”

“…However, the detrended correlation between the two variables is low [ Pizzolato et al , ]. Despite speculation that declining sea ice may be, to some extent, influencing shipping trends in the region, several other studies have suggested that tourism trends, commodity prices, and natural resource development are likely much more influential than declining sea ice [e.g., Bensassi et al , ; Brigham , ; Dawson et al , ; Eguíluz et al , ]. Even with these varying perspectives, the spatial variability of sea ice and its corresponding influence on shipping in Canadian Arctic waters has not been quantified over multidecadal time periods.…”

Combined observations of Arctic sea ice with near‐coincident colocated X‐band, C‐band, and L‐band SAR satellite remote sensing and helicopter‐borne measurements

“…The reduction in extent of Arctic sea ice [e.g., Perovich et al ., ; Meier et al ., ] combined with a reduced thickness [e.g., Giles et al ., ; Kwok and Cunningham , ] and a reduction in the amount of multiyear or perennial ice [e.g., Comiso , ] means that the Arctic is becoming more accessible for shipping, maritime activities, and the tourist industry [ Brigham , ; Eguíluz et al ., ]. While the two former strive to avoid the sea ice as much as possible and will, if ice is encountered, aim for a route through thinner ice to save time and fuel; the latter often try to get close to the sea ice for better visual contact.…”

eDNA metabarcoding as a new surveillance approach for coastal Arctic biodiversity

“…Climate change is opening new waterways in the Arctic Ocean, resulting in greater shipping traffic (ACIA 2004;Arctic Council 2009;Guy & Lasserre, 2016). Predicted increases in shipping frequency and routes (Eguíluz, Fernández-Gracia, Irigoien, & Duarte, 2016;Miller & Ruiz, 2014;Smith & Stephenson, 2013), increased infrastructure development in ports (Gavrilchuk & Lesage, 2014), and associated chemical/biological pollution will place other ecosystem services at risk. Furthermore, the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) may displace native species, alter habitat and community structure and increase aquaculture and fishing gear fouling in estuaries and coastal zones (Goldsmit et al, 2018;Grosholz, 2002;Parker et al, 1999).…”