A Quantitative Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Evaluated from Bayesian Approach for Different Regions in Iranian Plateau

Mohammadi, Hiwa; Türker, Tuğba; Bayrak, Yusuf

doi:10.1007/s00024-016-1264-5

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Applying the Equations ( 7)-( 9) to any given values of T may compute a priori the PDF, mean value and variance for quintile Y T (α|θ). All 3D integrals in equation ( 6) were determined by breaking a priori domain (10) into small cubes by a grid of 30 × 30 × 30 nodes and taking the values of integrated functions inside the centres of these small cubes using a simple integral sum.…”

Section: Methods Of Estimatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Iranian Plateau, earthquake hazard indicators were assessed [9]. For diverse places of the Iranian Plateau, a quantitative assessment of earthquake hazard characteristics using a Bayesian technique was carried out [10]. e modified Omori law parameters for the Iranian Plateau were determined using Bayesian methods [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the advantages of Bayesian statistics over the classic is that in the conventional probabilistic method, a constant value for PGA is provided in different return periods. But in the Bayesian method, PGA values are expressed distributive at different future intervals [10]. eir proximity to large cities and the lack of detailed information on their seismogenic potential call for multiparametric research.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lyubushin and Parvez [5] later tweaked maps based on Bayesian estimations of peak acceleration statistics. e method's core computational code, developed by Lyubushin, is used to predict earthquake risk in various locations of the world [4,10,[26][27][28][29][30][31]. ese maps show the acceleration in different time periods and the maximum values of the Earth's acceleration in the cities of Tehran, Tabriz, Rasht, and Zanjan, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the North and Northwest Iranian Plate Considering the Bayesian Perspective

Maleki

Rad

2022

Shock and Vibration

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In the last hundred years alone, there have occurred more than 2000 earthquakes larger than 4 in the northern and northwestern parts of Iran. Because Iran is placed in the heart of the Alpine-Himalayan collision zone, which is one of the world’s greatest seismic locations, massive earthquakes have regularly struck the country. Seismic hazard assessment is a realistic and helpful method for engineering seismology to prevent motions in a location in order to forecast the occurrence of earthquakes. For parameter estimation in seismic hazard assessments, the Bayesian probability theory provides a practical and accurate technique. As a result, Bayesian techniques for analysis are based on an older method. Furthermore, they have the unique capacity to account for the variability of characteristics in probabilistic relationships. In this assessment, we used the Bayesian earthquake risk estimation program developed by Lyubushin. Our research is in the sequence of applications of this program to assess the risk of earthquakes in various parts of the universe. In this method, the basic assumption is that earthquakes follow the characteristic of being Poisson. Its zoning map is drawn in the north and northwest regions of Iran. The highest value was obtained for the city of Tabriz with 0.29 galls, and the lowest value was obtained for the city of Zanjan with the value of 0.06 galls.

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Section: Methods Of Estimatementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the North and Northwest Iranian Plate Considering the Bayesian Perspective

Maleki

Rad

2022

Shock and Vibration

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“…Later, Lyubushin and Parvez (2010) modified creating maps of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration statistics. The main computational code of the method which was elaborated by Lyubushin, has been applied to estimate seismic hazard in different regions of the world (Lyubushin et al, 2002;Tsapanos et al, 2001;Türker 2016, 2017;Mohammadi et al, 2016;Salahshoor et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of source-base estimate of peak ground acceleration (Amax) in Zagros by Bayesian method with non-source approach

Jalilian

Mahood

Heidari

et al. 2020

Contrib. Geophys. Geod.

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Regarding Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method to estimate parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we used the program for seismic hazard Bayesian estimate which was elaborated by Alexey Lyubushin. Our study is the next in the sequence of applications of this software to seismic hazard assessment in different regions of the world. In this study, Bayesian approach has been used to obtain estimated seismic parameters. In order to reach this aim, 30 different source regions in Zagros seismotectonic province have been considered. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The a posteriori probability distribution functions of Mmax(T) and the tail probabilities P(Mmax(T) > M), that will occur in future time intervals of 10, 20, 50, 100 and 475 years are illustrated for source regions. The map of peak ground acceleration (PGA) zonation by probability level of 90% (in g) in rock bed for average return period of 50, 100 and 475 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum acceleration is estimated for the cities of Kermanshah, Ilam, Khorram Abad and Bandar Abbas which are related to NWZ1, NWZ2, NWZ3, NWZ7, NWZ8, SZ3, SH1, PG1 and PG2 sources. Finally, the results of this study are compared with obtained results of non-source approach.

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Quantifying Seismicity Parameter Uncertainties and Their Effects on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: A Case Study of Iran

Kowsari

Eftekhari

Kijko

et al. 2018

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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A Quantitative Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Evaluated from Bayesian Approach for Different Regions in Iranian Plateau

Cited by 7 publications

References 48 publications

Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the North and Northwest Iranian Plate Considering the Bayesian Perspective

Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the North and Northwest Iranian Plate Considering the Bayesian Perspective

Comparison of source-base estimate of peak ground acceleration (Amax) in Zagros by Bayesian method with non-source approach

Quantifying Seismicity Parameter Uncertainties and Their Effects on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: A Case Study of Iran

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