A Project Risk Management Methodology Based on Probabilistic and Non-probabilistic Approach: A Study on Transmission Line Installation Projects

Abstract

The article deals with the project risk analysis for electrical transmission line installation projects, where both probabilistic decision tree (DT) and non-probabilistic analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are used simultaneously on the same risks. The study gives the complete analysis for each risk type and finally they are analyzed by both AHP and DT; both of these techniques are selected for project’s risk minimization while designing the risk mitigation plan. A model is generated for minimizing the project risk and the risks selected after being analyzed through AHP and DT are then treated with this model for risk mitigation. Overall the study minimizes project risk by a three-step procedure, that is, AHP, DT, and finally through the risk minimization model for electrical transmission line installation projects.