A Process-Based Approach to Estimate Chinese Fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) Distribution and Productivity in Southern China under Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract:Understanding the distribution and productivity of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) under climate change is critical given the ecological and economic importance of the species. Recently, process-based growth models have grown in their popularity given their simplicity and data availability, and they are increasingly being used to map the distribution and productivity of tree species. In this paper, we study the extent of variation of the current range shift and the productivity of the species under a changing climate. We used the Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3-PG) model, which calculates the extent to which climatic variables affect photosynthesis and growth of a species. These variables were then used in a decision-tree model to develop rules to provide a basis for predicting the distribution of the species under current climatic conditions. Once the distribution model was developed the productivity of the species was then assessed. Using climate projections we then simulated the growth and distribution into the future. Results indicate a northward shift from the current range. The growth model also indicates minor increases in productivity in some of the existing distribution areas, principally in central 361China with limited productivity predicted in newly emerged stands. We conclude that this dual modeling approach has potential to quantify impacts of climate change on selected species and examining differences in climate projections on range and productivity estimation.

Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata

“…In the models of Liu et al 41. and Lu et al 40. although the southern edge of the distribution area did not move northward, the growth of the population from the southern region was significantly inhibited, which is different from the results of the experiments conducted based on the response to temperature change for the populations in different regions in the present study.…”

“…In a scenario in which the global temperatures increase by 3 °C, the population from the southern region may be less likely to expand its range, whereas the populations in the northern region are very likely to expand northward, which is basically consistent with the results of the predictions for the distribution of C. lanceolate based on the current suitable habitats of C. lanceolata 4041, i.e., the northern edge of the distribution area of C. lanceolata in China will expand northward. However, some models predict that the central region will become the most suitable area for the growth of populations of C. lanceolata under global climate change4041. In the models of Liu et al 41.…”

“…Generally, studies of the change in the distribution area of a species under global change consider the study area species as a homogeneous whole and do not differentiate between different populations of the species11640. The present study determined that there is a difference in the response to temperature change among populations of C. lanceolate collected from different regions (Figs 2 and 3); the influence of temperature increases on the growth of the populations exhibited an increasing trend with increasing latitude (Fig.…”

Optimized Maxent Model Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on the Suitable Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

“…While Lu et al used the process-based growth model and the WorldClim data with 2.5´spatial resolution as well as the digital version of Vegetation Map of China (1:1,000,000) to map the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata. The results showed that a species is likely to experience a northward shift with minor changes in the south, and the central regions of China are likely to become more suitable for C. lanceolata under future climate conditions [106]. By contrast, with the optimized Maxent model, we not only obtain the potential distribution results with high accuracy and high spatial resolution, but also improve the transfer ability of the Maxent to predict the potential distribution of C. lanceolate in the future climate scenarios.…”

Somatic Embryogenesis of Immature Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook Zygotic Embryos

“…Hook) is the most important conifer tree species in south subtropical areas of China; its natural distribution extends from 19°30′N to 34°03′N and from 101°30′E to 121°53′E, covering 17 administrative provinces 10 . The Chinese fir plantation area is approximately 9 million ha, accounting for 30% of the national afforestation area, which ensures that it occupies an important position in the forest resources of China 11 . Chinese fir is also a valued timber species because of its rapid growth and high-quality wood, which is used extensively for pulp, paper, and lumber 12 .…”