A probabilistic risk modelling chain for analysis of regional flood events

Oliver, Julien; Qin, Xiaosheng; Madsen, Henrik; Rautela, Piyoosh; Joshi, G. C.; Jørgensen, G.H.

doi:10.1007/s00477-019-01681-3

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…In the first implementation, AAL is calculated as the piecewise product of probability and loss using only the available return periods for the site (e.g., FEMA, 2013; Montgomery and Kunreuther, 2018;Armal et al, 2020). It is common practice in flood risk assessments to use only the available data of AEPs (oftentimes 10-50-100-, 500-year flood data), despite the fact that flood losses arise from all possible flood events (Oliver et al, 2019). To estimate AAL using this implementation, losses associated with the site's available return periods are calculated directly as piecewise product of probability and percentage of building value lost from depth-loss functions.…”

Section: Background: Existing Aal Implementation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved building-specific flood risk assessment and implications of depth-damage function selection

et al. 2022

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Average annual loss (AAL) is traditionally used as the basis of assessing flood risk and evaluating risk mitigation measures. This research presents an improved implementation to estimate building-specific AAL, with the flood hazard of a building represented by the Gumbel extreme value distribution. AAL is then calculated by integrating the area under the overall loss-exceedance probability curve using trapezoidal Riemann sums. This implementation is compared with existing AAL estimations from flood risk assessment. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the variability in AAL results based on depth-damage function (DDF) choice. To demonstrate the methodology, a one-story single-family residence is selected to assess the financial benefits of freeboard (i.e., increasing lowest floor elevations). Results show that 1 ft. of freeboard results in annual flood risk reduction of over $1,000, while 4 ft of freeboard results in annual flood risk reduction of nearly $2,000. The sensitivity result suggests that the DDF selection is critical, as a large proportion of flood loss is counted below the top of the first floor. The findings of this paper will enhance DDF selection, improve flood loss estimates, encourage homeowners and communities to invest in flood mitigation, and provide government decision-makers with improved information when considering building code changes.

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Section: Background: Existing Aal Implementation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved building-specific flood risk assessment and implications of depth-damage function selection

et al. 2022

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“…For the Netherlands, climate adaptation is often associated with flood risk (e.g., [45]). However, water scarcity, drought and heat stress are also considered as threats [46], particularly in the rural areas in the sandy east and south of the Netherlands, where drought is expected to become a problem [47,48]; while extreme rainfall and flooding are expected to occur more frequently.…”

Section: Fluvius Region the Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies

Vafeidis,

Reimann,

Ellen

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Scenario analysis is a widely employed method for addressing uncertainties when assessing the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Global scenarios have been extensively used in this context. However, these scenarios are in most cases not suitable for supporting local analyses. On the other hand, locally developed scenarios may lack the global context, thus having limited comparability with or transferability to other locations. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), which have been primarily developed for climate impact research, provide the possibility to extend the existing global narratives and adapt them to local characteristics in order to develop locally relevant scenarios. Here, we propose a methodological framework for producing harmonized scenarios across different case studies. This framework was developed in the EVOKED project and combines elements of top-down and bottom-up approaches to develop local scenarios for four regions in northern Europe. We employ the SSP as boundary conditions and, in cooperation with stakeholders from these four regions, develop local scenarios for a range of SSP. The developed sets of scenarios are consistently informed by global developments and are therefore comparable with other downscaled scenarios developed in different regions. At the same time, they have been based on local participatory processes, thus being locally credible and relevant to the needs of stakeholders. The local scenarios constitute a climate service per se as they can raise stakeholder awareness of the processes that will drive risk, exposure, and adaptive capacity in the future and inform discussions on mitigation strategies and adaptation pathways.

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“…The complicated interaction between different risk-related mechanisms in WRM cannot be easily modelled to characterize the system response under different risk control settings. Flood management is usually addressed from a risk viewpoint to quantify the hazard and depth of inundation and to consider the susceptibility to flooding (Oliver et al 2019;Andaryani et al 2021;Darabi et al 2021). Various stochastics techniques have been used to assess the risk in WRM and related concerns, particularly for extreme events during floods and droughts.…”

Section: Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nordic contributions to stochastic methods in hydrology

et al. 2022

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The paper presents prominent Nordic contributions to stochastic methods in hydrology and water resources during the previous 50 years. The development in methods from analysis of stationary and independent hydrological events to include non-stationarity, risk analysis, big data, operational research and climate change impacts is hereby demonstrated. The paper is divided into four main sections covering flood frequency and drought analyses, assessment of rainfall extremes, stochastic approaches to water resources management and approaches to climate change and adaptation efforts. It is intended as a review paper referring to a rich selection of internationally published papers authored by Nordic hydrologists or hydrologists from abroad working in a Nordic country or in cooperation with Nordic hydrologists. Emerging trends in needs and methodologies are highlighted in the conclusions.

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A probabilistic risk modelling chain for analysis of regional flood events

Cited by 11 publications

References 63 publications

Improved building-specific flood risk assessment and implications of depth-damage function selection

Improved building-specific flood risk assessment and implications of depth-damage function selection

Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies

Nordic contributions to stochastic methods in hydrology

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