A Probabilistic Rain Diagnostic Model Based on Cyclone Statistical Analysis

Iordanidou, Vasiliki; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis K.

doi:10.1155/2014/498020

Cited by 4 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Although with different applications, e.g., heavy precipitation [24] and landfalls [25], in the literature various methods [10,11,20,26] with the same purpose can be found and, despite their intrinsic characteristics, they all follow a similar structure. The first step involves the identification of the events' locations based on a determined atmospheric field, usually MSLP or WS, for each time-step.…”

Section: Cyclone and Windstorm Detection Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to verify the impact of the windstorms/cyclones on the wind power production level, a composite analysis was performed [24]. Consequently, for each point of the considered domain, it is possible to estimate the probability of a weather system to occur in combination with different levels of wind power production.…”

Section: Composite Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This procedure was also carried out to identify the meteorological events related to a wind power production of less than 30% of the installed capacity. It is worth mentioning that, in order to determine the area of influence for each event, a circumference with a radius based on the average distance between the cyclone center and the edges was considered for Methodology 1 as applied in [24]. For Methodology 2, the perimeter of each candidate was obtained with the convex hull approximation.…”

Section: Composite Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, and due to the damages caused, this storm generated a total economic loss of about €3.6 billion [41]. The Xynthia storm, which crossed Western Europe between 27 February and 1 March 2010 and resulted from the development of a low pressure system to the south of the Azores Islands on 26 February 12:00 UTC [41], is here analyzed aiming to: (i) validate the Methodologies 1 and 2 and comparing the resulting trajectories to the trajectory displayed in [24,43]; (ii) prove the relationship between the passage of these meteorological phenomena and the wind power ramps in the Portuguese aggregate. Thus, in Figure 1a both the trajectories for the Methodologies 1 and 2 are presented as well as the trajectory obtained through the cyclone detection algorithm available in [43].…”

Section: Storm Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones

2017

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Abstract:The increase in the wind power predictability assumes a very important role for secure power system operation at minimum costs, especially in situations with severe changes in wind power production. In order to improve the forecast of such events, also known as "wind power ramp events", the underlying role of some severe meteorological phenomena in triggering wind power ramps must be clearly understood. In this paper, windstorm and cyclone detection algorithms are implemented using historical reanalysis data allowing the identification of key characteristics (e.g., location, intensity and trajectories) of the events with the highest impact on the wind power ramp events in Portugal. The results show a strong association between cyclones/windstorms and wind power ramp events. Moreover, the results highlight that it is possible to use some features of these meteorological phenomena to detect, in an early stage, severe wind power ramps thus creating the possibility to develop operational decision tools in order to support the security of power systems with high amounts of wind power generation.

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Section: Cyclone and Windstorm Detection Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Composite Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Composite Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Storm Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones

2017

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“…Although cyclones have been extensively studied for their climatology, topology, frequency (Flocas et al, 2010;Neu et al, 2013) and also their relation to physical phenomena like rain and wind (Catto et al, 2012;Hawcroft et al, 2012), this is the first time the relationship of their characteristics to the intensity of the rain events is investigated. This methodology was recently applied for the construction of a rain prediction model (Iordanidou et al, 2014) providing information that can be valuable and supplementary for forecasting purposes. Individually or in association with additional information, the development of a basic warning system for the management and mitigation of flood events can be achieved.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mediterranean cyclone characteristics related to precipitation occurrence in Crete, Greece

Iordanidou

Koutroulis

Tsanis

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The characteristics of the cyclone tracks that caused precipitation events of variable intensity for the period 1979-2011 over the island of Crete are presented. The data set used for cyclone identification is the 0.5 • × 0.5 • , 30 years European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim mean sea-level pressure. Cyclone characteristics are calculated with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS scheme). Daily precipitation data from a dense gauging network over the island of Crete are also used for the classification of the precipitation events in terms of rain accumulation (intensity). Daily precipitation is classified in three categories and the associated cyclones are chosen according to their distance from Crete island. The seasonal and annual cycle of the physical characteristics of the cyclone tracks are investigated with respect to the cyclones' relative position to the island of Crete. It was found that cyclones affecting Crete most frequently approach from the western side of the island and the actual cyclone centers associated with precipitation events are usually located northwest and southeast of the Crete domain. Cycloneinduced rainfall increases in function to cyclones' depth, radius and propagation velocity increase as well as cyclones' pressure decrease. Spring cyclones that affect Crete with rainfall present lower pressures and higher cyclone propagation velocity in contrast to the ones associated with winter and autumn precipitation events. The examination of the relation between cyclone characteristics and precipitation occurrence provides valuable information related to forecasting potential and management of the water resources and the rainfall extremes.

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Cyclone contribution to the Mediterranean Sea water budget

et al. 2015

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International audienceThis paper analyzes the impact of cyclones to the atmospheric components on the Mediterranean Sea Water Budget, namely the cyclones contribution to precipitation and evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea. Three regional simulations were performed with the WRF model for the period 1989–2008. The model was run (1) as a standalone model, (2) coupled with the oceanic model NEMO-MED12 and (3) forced by the smoothed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) fields from the second simulation. Cyclones were tracked in all simulations, and their contribution to the total rainfall and evaporation was quantified. Results show that cyclones are mainly associated with extreme precipitation, representing more than 50 % of the annual rainfall over the Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, we found that cyclone-induced evaporation represents only a small fraction of the annual total, except in winter, when the most intense Mediterranean cyclones take place. Despite the significant contribution of cyclones to rainfall, our results show that there is a balance between cyclone-induced rainfall and evaporation, suggesting a weak net impact of cyclones on the Mediterranean Sea water budget. The sensitivity of our results with respect to rapid SST changes during the development of cyclones was also investigated. Both rainfall and evaporation are affected in correlation with the SST response to the atmosphere. In fact, air feedbacks to the Mediterranean Sea during the cyclones occurrence were shown to cool down the SST and consequently to reduce rainfall and evaporation at the proximity of cyclone centers

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A Probabilistic Rain Diagnostic Model Based on Cyclone Statistical Analysis

Cited by 4 publications

References 31 publications

Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones

Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones

Mediterranean cyclone characteristics related to precipitation occurrence in Crete, Greece

Cyclone contribution to the Mediterranean Sea water budget

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