A probabilistic life-cycle assessment of carbon emission from magnesium phosphate cementitious material with uncertainty analysis

Li, Panyue; Chen, Bing; Cui, Qi

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139164

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 121 publications

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“…Out of 19 LCAs with MCS applications, seven of the studies particularly focused on uncertainties associated with various building materials, including concrete. For example, Li et al [50] adopted a probabilistic LCA approach to estimate the carbon emission intensity of magnesium phosphate cementitious (MPC) materials. Utilizing MCS, the authors generated multiple simulated carbon emission intensities for MPC materials.…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulation (Mcs)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Excel file found in the Supplementary Information (SI) provides the list and details of 132 studies. With regards to cement-related uncertainty applications, Li et al [50], Miller [38], AzariJafari et al [52], and DeRousseau et al [42] studies are the four known studies that address uncertainty and data variability in LCAs of cement and concrete mixes.…”

Section: Pedigree Matrix and Dqimentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing uncertainty in building material emissions using scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation

Bin Thaneya,

Gursel,

Kane

et al. 2024

Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain.

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Global greenhouse gas emissions from the built environment remain high, driving innovative approaches to develop and adopt building materials that can mitigate some of those emissions. However, life-cycle assessment (LCA) practices still lack standardized quantitative uncertainty assessment frameworks, which are urgently needed to robustly assess mitigation efforts. Previous works emphasize the importance of accounting for the three types of uncertainties that may exist within any quantitative assessment: parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty. Herein, we develop a quantitative uncertainty assessment framework that distinguishes between different types of uncertainties and suggest how these uncertainties could be handled systematically through a scenario-aware Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We demonstrate the framework’s decision-informing power through a case study of two multilevel Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) manufacturing scenarios. The MCS utilizes a first-principles-based OPC life-cycle inventory, which mitigates some of the model uncertainty that may exist in other empirical-based cement models. Remaining uncertainties are handled by scenario specification or sampling from developed probability distribution functions. We also suggest a standardized method for fitting distributions to parameter data by enumerating through and implementing distributions based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The detailed parameter breakdown allows for developing emission distributions for each process of OPC manufacturing. This detailed approach highlights how individual parameters, along with scenario framing, impacts OPC emissions. Another key takeaway includes relating the uncertainty of each process to its contributions to total OPC emissions, which can guide LCA modelers in allocating data collection and refinement efforts on processes with the highest contribution to cumulative uncertainty. Ultimately, the aim of this work is to provide a standardized framework that can provide robust estimates of building material emissions and be readily integrated within any uncertainty assessment.

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Section: Monte Carlo Simulation (Mcs)mentioning

confidence: 99%