A probabilistic framework for the estimation of resilience of process plants under Na-Tech seismic events

Abstract

Industrial plants are complex structures, highly vulnerable with respect to seismic loading. Past seismic events have demonstrated the devastating impact and huge economic losses that an industrial plant can experience not only due to physical damage of equipment, but also due to interruption of the production processes. In order to quantify these economic losses, plant seismic resilience evaluation is required. The current paper presents a probabilistic process flow-based framework for assessment of industrial plant resilience and economic losses in case of seismic events. Uncertainties are considered in the ability of plant equipment to withstand the perturbation, and also in the recovery process including equipment recovery durations and recovery costs. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to account for the uncertainties of the model. A black carbon plant is used as a case study to show the applicability of the model. Results and capability of the proposed model shows that it can be a useful tool for decision makers, plant owners, insurance companies, emergency managers and plant designers in their decision making process.