A Probabilistic Characterization of the Relationship between Fine Particulate Matter and Mortality:  Elicitation of European Experts

Abstract

In support of an assessment of the mortality impacts of the Kuwait Oil Fires we interviewed six European experts in epidemiology and toxicology using formal procedures for elicitation of expert judgment. While the primary focus of the elicitations was to characterize the public health impacts of the fires, the experts provided quantitative estimates of the mortality impacts of hypothetical changes in the levels of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in both the United States and Europe. Uncertainty was assessed by asking each expert to provide the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of their subjective cumulative probability density function for each quantity of interest. The results suggest that many regulatory risk assessments underestimate the impacts of PM2.5 mortality; confirm that only a small fraction of the mortality impact occurs within the first few months after exposure; and indicate that it may be important to better address the differential toxicities of particles from various source classes. By providing quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in current estimates of PM2.5 mortality risks, the study facilitates structured analysis of the value of further research on PM2.5 and its impacts.

A rapid assessment of the impact of hazard reduction burning around Sydney, May 2016

“…As a result, several groups of experts have determined that it is appropriate to extrapolate these findings to populations in other regions, including Europe (Cooke et al, 2007;COMEAP, 2006COMEAP, , 2010Smith KR et al, 2009). The risk of ischaemic heart disease, which includes heart attacks, has particularly strong and consistent associations with PM 2.5 .…”

“…For the 2002 report on the global burden of disease, quantitative estimates of the effects of outdoor air pollution were based on four concentration-response functions: (1) adult cardiopulmonary mortality from long-term exposure to PM 2.5 ; (2) adult lung cancer mortality from long-term exposure to PM 2.5 ; (3) acute respiratory infection mortality for children under age 5, due to short-term exposure to PM 10 ; and (4) all-age all-cause mortality associated with short-term exposure to PM 10 (Cohen et al, 2005). A European expert panel determined that the study generating the most important impact -mortality from long-term exposure to PM 2.5 , which is based on data from the United States -could be extrapolated to populations in other geographic regions (Cooke et al, 2007). Since this effort, dozens of additional health impact assessments have been published that include several additional end-points.…”

Emission inventories and projections

“…EPA, 2009b;WHO, 2006]. These reviews, and other efforts specifically designed to elicit the views of the expert community on the strength of the existing scientific evidence [Cooke et al, 2007;Roman et al, 2008;U.K. COMEAP, 2009] support the conclusion that exposure to particulate air pollution is causally related to mortality from chronic cardiovascular and respiratory disease and lung cancer.…”

Measurement Study of Diurnal Variations of PM2.5 Mass Concentrations and Affecting Factors on Pollutant Dispersion in Urban Street Canyons under Weak-Wind Conditions in Xi’an

“…The links between certain respiratory health issues, such as the increase in asthma cases and mortality, and suspended particulate matter (Ali-Toudert and Mayer, 2006) in the atmosphere, especially in urban environments have been established by epidemiological and toxicological studies (Nag et al, 2005;Cooke et al, 2007). The dominant sources of PM 2.5 are from the traffic emissions in urban street canyons (Charron and Harrison, 2005).…”