A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

Dengue fever is an acute disease that clinically can cause death because there is no prediction system to estimate dengue fever cases so it resulted in the growing of dengue fever cases every year. Original data gathering in Jember area that uses technique of partial data gathering has caused data missing. To make this secondary data can be processed in prediction stage there is need to conduct missing imputation by using Monte Carlo method with four different randomization method, followed by data normality test with chisquare, then continued to regression stage. We use MSE (Mean Square Error) to measure prediction error. The smallest MSE result of regression is the best regression model for prediction.

Prediction Of Amount Of Use Of Planning Family Contraception Equipment Using Monte Carlo Method (Case Study In Linggo Sari Baganti District)

“…Metode ini dapat memperkirakan kinerja sistem yang ada dengan beberapa kondisi yang berbeda dan dapat menganalisa peluang ketidakpastian tanpa menghapus data kosong. Metode ini juga mempermudah proses regresi untuk kejadian selanjutnya [9].…”