A prediction model of atrial fibrillation recurrence after first catheter ablation by a nomogram: HASBLP score

Abstract

BackgroundAt present, catheter ablation is an effective method for rhythm control in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, AF recurrence is an inevitable problem after catheter ablation. To identify patients who are prone to relapse, we developed a predictive model that allows clinicians to closely monitor these patients and treat them with different personalized treatment plans.Materials and methodsA total of 1,065 patients who underwent AF catheter ablation between January 2015 and December 2018 were consecutively included in this study, which examines the results of a 2-year follow-up. Patients with AF were divided into development cohort and validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out on the potential risk factors. Specific risk factors were used to draw the nomogram according to the above results. Finally, we verified the performance of our model compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve and plotted the decision analysis curve (DAC).ResultsA total of 316 patients experienced AF recurrence. After univariate and multivariate analyses, AF history (H), age (A), snoring (S), body mass index (BMI) (B), anteroposterior diameter of left atrial (LA) (L), and persistent AF (P) were included in our prediction model. Our model showed a better performance compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores, and the area under ROC curve (95%CI) was 0.7668 (0.7298–0.8037) vs. 0.6225 (0.5783–0.6666) and 0.6267 (0.5836–0.6717).ConclusionWe established a nomogram (HASBLP score) for predicting AF recurrence after the first catheter ablation at a 2-year follow-up, which can be used as a tool to guide future follow-up of patients. However, its usefulness needs further validation.

Association of Uric Acid Albumin Ratio with Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation after Cryoballoon Catheter Ablation

“…Many studies have been conducted to predict AF recurrence. The type of AF, advanced age, LA dimensions, smoking and female sex are predictors that increase AF recurrence [15,16]. We found LA diameter, AF duration, and AF type to be correlated with AF recurrence in univariable analysis.…”

Predictive Value of Machine Learning for Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation after Catheter Ablation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

“…Among them, one article was unavailable in full text, 6 articles were excluded for other reasons, and one article was deleted due to duplication of an identical cohort. Finally, 40 studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis [ 12 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 ]. Fig.…”

“…The majority of catheter ablation procedures were performed using radiofrequency ablation or cryoablation, and the average follow-up time ranged from 4 months to 120 months. Patients from the United States were represented in 6 studies [ 12 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 ], Europe in 11 studies [ 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 ], and the Asia-Pacific region in 23 studies [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 ]. Regarding the ML algorithms, logistic regression was the most commonly used method for predicting AF recurrence after catheter ablation, accounting for 24 out of 40 studies (60%).…”

Nomogram to predict recurrence risk factors in patients with non‐valvular paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after catheter radiofrequency ablation

“…The community of patients with AF recurrence is varied in terms of age, gender, structural heart disease, comorbidities such as hypertension and diabetes, history of congestive heart failure and embolic events, and type of AF, according to studies conducted over the years. 5,6 For instance, atrial fibrosis measured by LGE-CMR is associated with the probability of recurrence after cryoball ablation. 7,8 The study of left atrial appendage blood flow velocity as an independent risk factor for recurrence of AF by transesophageal echocardiography.…”

“…Patients with a higher risk of postoperative recurrence can be identified through preoperative examination, thus improving the success rate and minimizing the dangers of the surgery. The community of patients with AF recurrence is varied in terms of age, gender, structural heart disease, comorbidities such as hypertension and diabetes, history of congestive heart failure and embolic events, and type of AF, according to studies conducted over the years 5,6 . For instance, atrial fibrosis measured by LGE‐CMR is associated with the probability of recurrence after cryoball ablation 7,8 .…”