A Prediction Market Game to Route Selection under Uncertainty

Mizuyama, Hajime; Torigai, Shuhei; Anse, Michiko

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-04954-0_26

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The prediction market used in the proposed system is designed according to the authors earlier work (Mizuyama 2012, Mizuyama et al 2013). The prediction market utilizes two types of prediction securities.…”

Section: Fig 2 Example: Adding An Arcmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collaborative Process Planning on Route Market Platform

Beppu

Mizuyama

Nonaka

2017

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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Section: Fig 2 Example: Adding An Arcmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collaborative Process Planning on Route Market Platform

Beppu

Mizuyama

Nonaka

2017

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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“…Accordingly, the market price of the security can be deemed as a collective forecast of the unknown result. Prediction markets have been successfully applied to a real-life sales forecasting problem (Plott & Chen, 2002) and also utilized as the underlying mechanism for a route selection game (Mizuyama, Torigai, & Anse, 2014). In a similar application, this mechanism can be utilized as a tool for estimating collectively by all the members of an organization whether an activity of the organization, such as a sales negotiation, is likely to be successfully completed by the person in charge.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Prediction Market-Based Gamified Approach to Enhance Knowledge Sharing in Organizations

Mizuyama

Yamaguchi

Satô

2019

Simulation & Gaming

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Background. Knowledge sharing among the members of an organization is crucial for enhancing the organization’s performance. However, knowing how to motivate and direct members to effectively and efficiently share their relevant private knowledge concerning the organization’s activities is not entirely a straightforward matter. Aim. This study aims to propose a gamified approach not only for motivating truthful sharing and collective evaluation of knowledge among the members of an organization but also for properly directing those actions so as to maximize the usefulness of the shared knowledge. A case study is also conducted to understand how the proposed approach works in a live business scenario. Method. A prediction market game on a binary event on whether the specified activity will be completed successfully is devised. The game utilizes an original comment aggregation and evaluation system through which relevant knowledge can be shared verbally and evaluated collectively by the players themselves. Players’ behavior is driven toward a desirable direction with the associated incentive framework realized by three game scores. Results. The proposed gamified approach was implemented as a web application and verified with a laboratory experiment. The game was also played by four participants who deliberated on an actual sales proposal in a real company. It was observed that the various valuable knowledge elements that were successfully collected from the participants could be utilized for refining the sales proposal. Conclusions. The game induced motivation through gamification, and some of the designed game scores worked in directing the players’ behavior as desired. The players learned from others’ comments, which brought about a snowball effect and enriched collective knowledge. Future research directions include how to transform this knowledge into an easy-to-comprehend representation.

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A Prediction Market Game to Route Selection under Uncertainty

Cited by 2 publications

References 9 publications

Collaborative Process Planning on Route Market Platform

Collaborative Process Planning on Route Market Platform

A Prediction Market-Based Gamified Approach to Enhance Knowledge Sharing in Organizations

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