A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Smith, Stanley K.; Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David A.

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0

Cited by 97 publications

(83 citation statements)

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“…In turn, this uncertainty is exacerbated the further the projection from the base year, explaining our relatively large SD among county level projections. Conventional techniques for addressing uncertainty revolve around constructing a range of projection scenarios (e.g., high, medium, and low) by applying different assumptions using the specific projection method (34). However, this technique does not fully quantify the uncertainty and, because we were projecting population based on business as usual, we only provided one particular scenario, most closely resembling a medium projection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

McKee

Rose

Bright

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.population projections | population distribution | LandScan | high-resolution population I mpacts, adaptations, and vulnerability of population have come into sharp focus in recent years, particularly in light of concerns around global climate change (1). Whether through increased susceptibility to vector-borne disease (2), food scarcity, or extreme weather events, the general consensus is that large populations will be affected by the impacts of climate change (3). Nearly every climate change model predicts some magnitude of sea level rise (4), and whereas a considerable segment of the world's population lives in close proximity to coastal areas (5-8), rising sea levels increase the risk of storm surge, coastal flooding, and other stormrelated hazards (4, 9). The aforementioned scenarios require the examination of tools and data that are necessary to quantify populations at risk to these predicted adverse events, so that appropriate countermeasures can be taken when attempting to allocate potential resources. Spatially explicit gridded population estimates have repeatedly proven their usefulness for planning needs, including those of public health, the environment, disaster mitigation, preparedness and assistance, and service area planning for local, regional, and national governments.Originally pioneered by Semenov-Tian-Shansky (10) and popularized by Wright (11), dasymetric modeling is a key technique for spatial disaggregatio...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

McKee

Rose

Bright

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Al respecto Phillip Martin observa que la continuidad de la migración, incluso su crecimiento en el corto y mediano plazos, no son, sin embargo, incompatibles con los resultados migratorios esperados -su disminución-en el largo plazo. Este comportamiento transitorio de aumento a medida que se produce un desarrollo de consideración ha sido descrito como la "joroba migratoria" ya que en un primer momento las corrientes migratorias se incrementan por encima de su trayectoria secular (ante una integración económica más estrecha que implica procesos de ajuste económicos significativos, a la vez que disponibilidad de ingresos corrientes que permiten costear la migración) para después, en el mediano y largo plazos, en un segundo momento, disminuir una vez transpuesto un cierto umbral de desarrollo económico [Phillip Martin, 1993y 2001, citado por Alba, 2004.…”

Section: Crecimiento Económico Y Migraciónunclassified

Análisis de los supuestos sobre la migración internacional en las proyecciones de población de México 2001-2050 y 2006-2050

Guerrero

2014

EDU

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Distintos ejercicios prospectivos consideran que la proyección de la migración está relacionada con la presunción del éxito en diversos objetivos coyunturales de carácter económico, de ahí que en este trabajo se analicen los supuestos de proyección referentes a esta componente demográfica vinculándolos con el marco teórico subyacente y con el contexto político-económico. Se analizan las fuentes citadas en el documento metodológico y en la literatura relacionada con el tema. Algunos de los hallazgos indican que los ejercicios prospectivos examinados suponen un crecimiento económico sostenido de 5% durante la primera década del siglo xxi, con lo que la migración neta crecería a una tasa constante anual cercana a 0.22. Este supuesto está directamente relacionado con las expectativas de las coyunturas político-económicas de los dos primeros gobiernos mexicanos del siglo xxi y con el crecimiento económico alcanzado en el último quinquenio del siglo pasado. Para incrementar la confiabilidad en sus resultados se propone el uso de técnicas estocásticas para medir adecuadamente la incertidumbre asociada a la migración e incrementar así la objetividad en su

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“…This partly relates to the model simplicity and data availability and reliability, and this in turn impacts the timeliness of projections. Another important consideration mentioned by Smith et al (2013) is the ease with which the model can be applied and the results explained, which is directly related to the simplicity of the model.…”

Section: Simplicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Smith et al (2013), 'face validity' of a projection refers to the use of reliable data, reasonable assumptions, and whether all the factors impacting the results are incorporated into the method. The model and methods employed should produce reliable, accurate and valid forecasts.…”

Section: Validitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population estimates and projections for Australia’s very elderly population at state and national level

Terblanche¹

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As in many developed countries, the very elderly population (ages 85+) is the fastest growing age group in Australia, with far-reaching economic and social consequences. To effectively plan and budget for the income, aged care and health care needs of the very elderly, accurate estimates and projections are required. There are, however, several obstacles relating to the availability and accuracy of very elderly data. Official population estimates at very high ages in Australia have been found to be too high and fluctuate implausibly over time. International and local studies have found large errors in projected very elderly populations, stemming from inaccurate mortality rate forecasts.This thesis aims to create accurate estimates and projections for Australia's very elderly population at a state and national level. Various methods for estimating very elderly populations from death counts were assessed for accuracy at both a national and state level.While the Human Mortality Database uses such methods to create estimates for many countries, their accuracy has never been assessed for Australia. Furthermore, little is known, locally or internationally, about their performance at a sub-national scale. In this study, the accuracy of various nearly-extinct-cohort methods were assessed at the Australian national and state level by retrospectively applying them to extinct cohorts and comparing the results against those obtained from applying the Extinct Cohort method. Suitable methods were applied to create very elderly population estimates and death rates for Australia from 1972-2012 by sex, state and at single ages 85-110+. The growth, changes in the age-sex composition and the demographic drivers of growth of Australia's very elderly population were analysed. Based on these estimates, more reliable death rates were calculated, allowing a detailed study of the changing patterns and trends in Australian adult mortality. Finally, a number of mortality forecasting methods were retrospectively evaluated for their accuracy in projecting adult death rates for Australia over 10 and 20 years ending in 2012. An appropriate method was applied to create projections for the next three decades.It was found that, compared to the official census-based estimates, more plausible and accurate estimates, especially for ages 95+, could be derived from death counts. The Survivor Ratio (SR) method with results constrained to official estimates for ages 85+ produced accurate very elderly population estimates for Australia across the sexes and ages at both a national and state level. Internal migration is sufficiently minor to be ignored. Very accurate state-level estimates could also be derived using a simpler method of apportioning national single-age estimates between the states. Adult death rates in Australia were found to show consistent and regular patterns of decline since the 1970s, with rates of decline decreasing with age. These patterns support the use of simple direct extrapolation methods for forecasting. The Geometric,...

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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Cited by 97 publications

References 0 publications

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050

Análisis de los supuestos sobre la migración internacional en las proyecciones de población de México 2001-2050 y 2006-2050

Population estimates and projections for Australia’s very elderly population at state and national level

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