A practical guide to the use of success versus failure statistics in the estimation of prospect risk

Prospect risk, pot odds, and efficient drill or no-drill decision making: What the exploration business can learn from high-stakes poker

“…Many methods can be used to estimate Pg (e.g., Megill, 1977;Rose, 1987Rose, , 1992Rose, , 2001White, 1993;Duff and Hall, 1996;Peel and Brooks, 2016), and it is not the purpose of this paper to discuss these methods. However, fine-tuning an existing estimate of Pg may not be a useful contribution to the decision-making process, and it may even be a distraction from the real business at hand, which is to make a decision to drill or not to drill.…”