A Potential Forecast for Ischemic Stroke Burden in 2030

Cantú-Brito, Carlos; García‐Grimshaw, Miguel

doi:10.1212/wnl.0000000000207517

Neurology

2023

DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000207517

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A Potential Forecast for Ischemic Stroke Burden in 2030

Carlos Cantú-Brito

Miguel García‐Grimshaw

Abstract: The first stage for planning effective public health interventions for cerebrovascular diseases is having updated epidemiological surveillance systems to understand the problem clearly.1 The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has become a critical resource for quantifying health loss from hundreds of communicable and noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors from 204 countries and territories since 1990, among them stroke.2

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2024

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Contribution of Stroke to Long-Term All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City

Gomez-Figueroa,

Ruiz-Sandoval,

De Alba-Sánchez

et al. 2024

Neurology

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Background and ObjectivesStroke mortality is more common in low-income and middle-income nations such as Mexico. Prognosis data typically rely on short-term hospital follow-ups, revealing high mortality rates due to systemic complications and early recurrence. We aim to explore stroke's long-term impact by examining all-cause and cause-specific mortality. MethodsWe analyzed data from the Mexico City Prospective Study (1998Study ( -2004 with known mortality outcomes until December 2022. Baseline variables were compared between participants who had stroke and nonstroke participants. Cox proportional hazard regression assessed each variable's contribution to overall mortality. Subsequent analysis within the stroke subgroup aimed to identify unique risk factors of mortality, using Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, and time since stroke. ResultsAmong 145,537 eligible participants, 1,492 (1.0%) had a history of stroke. Participants who had stroke were older (57.58 vs 50.16, p < 0.001); had lower mean weekly income ($108.24 vs $176.14, p < 0.001); had higher alcohol intake and smoking frequency; and had more frequent comorbidities such as hypertension (48.9 vs 19.3%, p < 0.001), diabetes (23.4 vs 12.9%, p < 0.001), and ischemic heart disease (5.4 vs 1.0%, p < 0.001). They had a significantly increased risk of death from any cause (hazard ratio [HR] 2.59, 95% CI 2.37-2.83, p < 0.001). Deceased participants with stroke were more likely to be male, with a higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal waist-hip index. Stroke increased the risk of death from cardiac (HR 3.56,, p < 0.001), renal (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.58-2.66, p < 0.001), and pulmonary (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.79-2.92, p < 0.001) causes. DiscussionThis study confirms stroke's association with higher mortality rates, especially from cardiac, renal, and pulmonary causes in Mexico. It underscores the elevated prevalence of cardiovascular comorbidities and adverse socioeconomic profiles among participants who had stroke and those who died with a history of stroke.

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Contribution of Stroke to Long-Term All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City

Gomez-Figueroa,

Ruiz-Sandoval,

De Alba-Sánchez

et al. 2024

Neurology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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A Potential Forecast for Ischemic Stroke Burden in 2030

Cited by 1 publication

References 10 publications

Contribution of Stroke to Long-Term All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City

Contribution of Stroke to Long-Term All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City

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