A physics-based earthquake simulator and its application to seismic hazard assessment in Calabria (Southern Italy) region

Console, Rodolfo; Nardi, Anna; Carluccio, R.; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Parsons, Tom

doi:10.1007/s11600-017-0020-2

Cited by 20 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Dynamic rupture modeling at important junctions would be an improvement over static stress simulations. Finally, an ultimate goal would be to determine the globally optimal temporal sequence of earthquakes based on Coulomb stress changes, similar to the methods employed in the physics‐based simulators (Console et al, 2017; Richards‐Dinger & Dieterich, 2012). Finally, as an alternative application of this method, it may be possible to invert for the optimal long‐term event rate if the slip rate can be well constrained.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simplifying the problem to examine participation and nucleation rupture rates on faults given a regional earthquake catalog, Parsons et al (2018) apply several alternative methods and compare the results to those from the UCERF3 Grand Inversion. These methods include a physics-based earthquake simulator developed by Console et al (2015Console et al ( , 2017 and two combinatorial based methods: the greedy-sequential method first introduced by Parsons and Geist (2009) and the integer programming (IP) method introduced by Geist and Parsons (2018). Although the latter is a global optimization method, the size of the problem that can be solved is more limited than the other two methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Distribution of Earthquakes on a Branching Fault System Using Integer Programming and Greedy‐Sequential Methods

Geist

Parsons

2020

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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A new global optimization method is used to determine the distribution of earthquakes on a complex, connected fault system. The method, integer programming, has been advanced in the field of operations research but has not been widely applied to geophysical problems until recently. In this application, we determine the optimal distribution of earthquakes on mapped faults to minimize the global misfit in slip rates for multifault ruptures. Integer programming solves for a decision vector composed of every possible location that a sample of earthquakes can occur on every fault, subject to slip rate uncertainty constraints. Step over connections are straightforward to include, whereas branching fault connections are not. To include branching ruptures, we distinguish between individual multifault rupture paths, as opposed to formulating the integer programming problem based on individual faults as in previous studies. The new method is applied to the complex fault system in the San Francisco Bay Area as a case study. Results from the integer programming method are compared to those from a local optimization method, termed the greedy‐sequential method. Several experiments using these two methods indicate that shape of the on‐fault magnitude distributions and which branching faults are involved in multifault ruptures depend on how much emphasis is placed on fitting the target slip rate. In cases where the underlying data are not strong enough to warrant chasing the target slip rate, it is better to focus on the distribution of feasible results that better represents the uncertainty in the solutions imposed by the data.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of Earthquakes on a Branching Fault System Using Integer Programming and Greedy‐Sequential Methods

Geist

Parsons

2020

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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“…The second independent method we apply is a physics‐based earthquake simulator (Console et al, , ) where the seismogenic system is modeled by rectangular fault sections. Each section is composed of many square cells of size set to the minimum earthquake rupture of interest ( M = 5.0 in this case).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distributions on Faults Calculated From Consensus Data in California

et al. 2018

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An estimate of the expected earthquake rate at all possible magnitudes is needed for seismic hazard forecasts. Regional earthquake magnitude frequency distributions obey a negative exponential law (Gutenberg‐Richter), but it is unclear if individual faults do. We add three new methods to calculate long‐term California earthquake rupture rates to the existing Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 efforts to assess method and parameter dependence on magnitude frequency results for individual faults. All solutions show strongly characteristic magnitude‐frequency distributions on the San Andreas and other faults, with higher rates of large earthquakes than would be expected from a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution. This is a necessary outcome that results from fitting high fault slip rates under the overall statewide earthquake rate budget. We find that input data choices can affect the nucleation magnitude‐frequency distribution shape for the San Andreas Fault; solutions are closer to a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution if the maximum magnitude allowed for earthquakes that occur away from mapped faults (background events) is raised above the consensus threshold of M = 7.6, if the moment rate for background events is reduced, or if the overall maximum magnitude is reduced from M = 8.5. We also find that participation magnitude‐frequency distribution shapes can be strongly affected by slip rate discontinuities along faults that may be artifacts related to segment boundaries.

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“…The information about large events in the Caucasus in the geological past is incomplete. Modelling of seismic events using earthquake simulators can overcome the difficulties in SHA by combination of observations, historic data and modelled results (e.g., Sokolov andIsmail-Zadeh, 2015, 2016;Console et al, 2017). Particularly, Sokolov and Ismail-Zadeh (2015) developed a new approach to a Monte-Carlo probabilistic SHA combining the observed regional seismicity with large magnitude synthetic events obtained by earthquake simulations.…”

Section: Seismicity and Earthquake Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geodynamics, seismicity, and seismic hazards of the Caucasus

Ismail‐Zadeh

Adamia

Chabukiani

et al. 2020

Earth-Science Reviews

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Being a part of ongoing continental collision between the Arabian and Eurasian plates, the Caucasus region is a remarkable site of moderate to strong seismicity, where devastating earthquakes caused significant losses of lives and livelihood. In this article, we survey geology and geodynamics of the Caucasus and its surroundings; magmatism and heat flow; active tectonics and tectonic stresses caused by the collision and shortening; gravity and density models; and overview recent geodetic studies related to regional movements. The tectonic development of the Caucasus region in the Mesozoic-Cenozoic times as well as the underlying dynamics controlling its development are complicated processes. It is clear that the collision is responsible for a topographic uplift / inversion and for the formation of the fold-and-thrust belts of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus. Tectonic deformations in the region is influenced by the wedge-shaped rigid Arabian block indenting into the relatively mobile region and producing near N-S compressional stress and seismicity in the Caucasus. Regional seismicity is analysed with an attention to sub-crustal seismicity under the northern foothills of the Greater Caucasus, which origin is unclearwhether the seismicity associated with a descending oceanic crust or thinned continental crust. Recent seismic tomography studies are in favour of the detachment of a lithospheric root beneath the Lesser and Greater Caucasus. The knowledge of geodynamics, seismicity, and stress regime in the Caucasus region assists in an assessment of seismic hazard and risk. We look finally at existing gaps in the current knowledge and identify the problems, which may improve our understanding of the regional evolution, active tectonics, geodynamics, shallow and deeper seismicity, and surface manifestations of the lithosphere dynamics. Among the gaps are those related to uncertainties in regional geodynamic and tectonic evolution (e.g., continental collision and associated shortening and exhumation, lithosphere structure, deformation and strain-stress partitioning) and to the lack of comprehensive datasets (e.g., regional seismic catalogues, seismic, gravity and geodetic surveys).

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A physics-based earthquake simulator and its application to seismic hazard assessment in Calabria (Southern Italy) region

Cited by 20 publications

References 27 publications

Distribution of Earthquakes on a Branching Fault System Using Integer Programming and Greedy‐Sequential Methods

Distribution of Earthquakes on a Branching Fault System Using Integer Programming and Greedy‐Sequential Methods

Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distributions on Faults Calculated From Consensus Data in California

Geodynamics, seismicity, and seismic hazards of the Caucasus

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