A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities

Ellsworth, William L.; Matthews, Mark V.; Nadeau, R. M.; Nishenko, Stuart P.; Reasenberg, Paul A.; Simpson, Robert W.

doi:10.3133/ofr99522

Cited by 173 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The prior distribution for c is defined by taking 1/c to be distributed uniformly on the interval (0,1). For the inverse Gaussian model, the second parameter is a dispersion parameter called the aperiodicity, for which a generic value of 0.5 was suggested by Ellsworth et al (1999). Values close to 0 correspond to regular, i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The inverse Gaussian (Brownian passageÁtime) distribution was proposed by Ellsworth et al (1999) and Matthews et al (2002) as a physically realistic model of earthquake occurrence, and at present appears to be the most generally accepted timeÁvariable model (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology 2007;Field et al 2009). For this model the hazard is zero immediately after a rupture, rises gradually to a peak and then tails off asymptotically to a positive constant as the elapsed time greatly exceeds the mean recurrence interval.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

Dissen

Rhoades

Little

et al. 2013

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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New information on the timing of past ruptures, size of single-event displacements and Holocene dextral slip rate of the Wairarapa and Ō hariu faults has become available from recent geological studies. This information is used to evaluate the conditional probability of rupture over the next 100 yr using four different recurrenceÁtime models, allowing for data and parameter uncertainties. The sensitivity of estimates to data and distributional assumptions is examined. The southern Wairarapa Fault has a probability of rupture in the next 100 yr of c. 7.7, 1.3, 2.3 and 4.3% under the exponential, lognormal, Weibull and inverse Gaussian models, respectively, based on preferred data inputs. Corresponding estimates for the Ō hariu Fault are c. 4.3, 5.1, 3.9 and 5.1%. A logic tree with subjectively assigned weights is suggested to combine such differing time-dependent estimates. This gives a 100-yr conditional probability of rupture of c. 3.0% for the southern Wairarapa Fault and c. 4.9% for the Ō hariu Fault.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

Dissen

Rhoades

Little

et al. 2013

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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“…The BPT distribution is based on a simple physical earthquake cycle model and has highly desirable statistical properties in describing the earthquake recurrence statistics. This distribution has been widely used in California and Japan (Fujiwara et al 2005;WGCEP 2007;Field et al 2015), among other studies (Ellsworth et al 1999;Matthews et al 2002;Fujiwara et al 2009;Akinci et al 2010;Garcia-Aristizabal et al 2012). The probability density of the BPT model is given as follows:…”

Section: Renewal Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The frequency of large earthquake occurrence forms the basis for seismic hazard assessments, while the concept of a stress-driven earthquake renewal inspires time-dependent earthquake probability calculations. In fact, in recent years, the time dependent occurrence model has been applied increasingly as part of PSHA (e.g., Ogata 1999;Ellsworth et al 1999;Cramer et al 2000;González et al 2006;Jean et al 2006;Chang et al 2007;Akinci et al 2010;Garcia-Aristizabal et al 2012;Mosca et al 2012). The timedependent hazard analysis in the San Francisco Bay region using the probability models for the major Bay Area faults was considered by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Working Group on the California Earthquake Probabilities study (WGCEP 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

Chang¹,

Loh²,

Jean³

2017

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944) exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault) are short.

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“…In our opinion, this is true only in theory. Worldwide practice (e.g., see Ellsworth et al 1999 for California; Shimazaki 2006 for Japan; Pantosti et al 2008 for Turkey) derives α values from observed sets of interoccurrence times, which are affected by epistemic errors due, at least, to completeness and sensitivity reasons (possible missed events and uncertainties in paleoseismic event dates). The aperiodicity α associated to a fault, or to a group of characteristic earthquake sources, should be, therefore, considered a representative of both the aleatory and epistemic variability.…”

Section: Probabilistic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Error propagation in time-dependent probability of occurrence for characteristic earthquakes in Italy

2008

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Time-dependent models for seismic hazard and earthquake probabilities are at the leading edge of research nowadays. In the framework of a 2-year national Italian project (2005)(2006)(2007), we have applied the Brownian passage time (BPT) renewal model to the recently released Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS) to compute earthquake probability in the period 2007-2036. Observed interevent times on faults in Italy are absolutely insufficient to characterize the recurrence time. We, therefore, derived mean recurrence intervals indirectly. To estimate the uncertainty of the results, we resorted to the theory of error propagation with respect to the main parameters: magnitude and slip rate. The main issue concerned the high variability of slip Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10950-008-9131-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.L. Peruzza (B) · F. Cavallini OGS-Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale, Sgonico, Trieste, Italy e-mail: lperuzza@inogs.it B. Pace GEOSISLAB-Università degli Studi "G. D'Annunzio", Chieti Scalo, Italy rate, which could hardly be reduced by exploiting geodetic constraints. We did some validation tests, and interesting considerations were derived from seismic moment budgeting on the historical earthquake catalog. In a time-dependent perspective, i.e., when the date of the last event is known, only 10-15% of the 115 sources exhibit a probability of a characteristic earthquake in the next 30 years higher than the equivalent Poissonian probabilities. If we accept the Japanese conventional choice of probability threshold greater than 3% in 30 years to define "highly probable sources," mainly intermediate earthquake faults with characteristic M < 6, having an elapsed time of 0.7-1.2 times the recurrence interval are the most "prone" sources. The number of highly probable sources rises by increasing the aperiodicity coefficient (from 14 sources in the case of variable α ranging between 0.22 and 0.36 to 31 sources out of 115 in the case of an α value fixed at 0.7). On the other hand, in stationary time-independent approaches, more than two thirds of all sources are considered probabilistically prone to an impending earthquake. The performed tests show the influence of the variability of the aperiodicity factor in the BPT renewal model on the absolute probability values. However, the influence on the relative ranking of sources is small. Future developments should give priority to a more accurate determination of the date of the last seismic event for a few seismogenic sources of the DISS catalog 120 J Seismol (2010) 14:119-141 and to a careful check on the applicability of a purely characteristic model.

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A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities

Cited by 173 publications

References 15 publications

Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

Error propagation in time-dependent probability of occurrence for characteristic earthquakes in Italy

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