A Perspective on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge from Southern and Eastern Africa: A Case Study Near Durban, South Africa

Abstract

Recent coastal storms in southern Africa have highlighted the need for more proactive management of the coastline. Within the southern and eastern African region the availability of coastal information is poor. The greatest gap in information is the likely effects of a combination of severe sea storms and future sea level rise (SLR) on the shoreline. This lack of information creates a barrier to informed decision making. This research outlines a practical localized approach to this problem, which can be applied as a first order assessment within the region. In so doing it provides a cost effective and simple decision support tool for the built environment and disaster professionals in development and disaster assessments. In a South African context the newly promulgated Integrated Coastal Management Act requires that all proposed coastal developments take into consideration future SLR, however such information currently does not exist, despite it being vital for informed planning in the coastal zone. This practical approach has been applied to the coastline of Durban, South Africa as a case study. The outputs are presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) based freeware viewer tool enabling ease of access to both professionals and laypersons. This demonstrates that a simple approach can provide valuable information about the current and future risk of flooding and coastal erosion under climate change to buildings, infrastructure as well as natural features along the coast. OPEN ACCESSWater 2012, 4 238

Circulation patterns identified by spatial rainfall and ocean wave fields in Southern Africa

“…The CP06 resembles a pattern similar to TC's south of Madagascar. TC's located within this region have been cited to drive large swells toward the KZN Coast (Mather and Stretch, 2012). The CP05 resembles low-pressure systems over the interior.…”

“…A number of weather types have been cited as the drivers of this wave climate. For example tropical cyclones, mid-latitude (extra-tropical) cyclones and cut off lows (Rossouw et al, 1982;Corbella and Stretch, 2012c;Mather and Stretch, 2012). The location and persistence of tropical cyclones (TC's) are believed to drive large wave events that cause severe beach erosion in KZN (Corbella and Stretch, 2012c;Mather and Stretch, 2012).…”

“…For example tropical cyclones, mid-latitude (extra-tropical) cyclones and cut off lows (Rossouw et al, 1982;Corbella and Stretch, 2012c;Mather and Stretch, 2012). The location and persistence of tropical cyclones (TC's) are believed to drive large wave events that cause severe beach erosion in KZN (Corbella and Stretch, 2012c;Mather and Stretch, 2012). Cut-off lows are deep low pressure systems that are displaced from the normal path of west-east moving midlatitude cyclones (Preston-Whyte and Tyson, 1988).…”

Managed Retreat: A Rare and Paradoxical Success, but Yielding a Dismal Prognosis

“…The idea has been explored in many countries (e.g. Breetzke et al, 2008;Hart, 2011;Mather and Stretch, 2012;Ryan et al, 2012;Barron et al, 2012;Roca and Villares, 2012). National governments have advocated its adoption: the UK is hoping for major coastal realignment in England and Wales by 2030 (Defra and EA, 2002;CCC, 2013;O"Riordan et al, 2014); MR in the USA aims at assisting coastal risk reduction requirements for unprotectable areas (NWF, 1998;NOAA, 2014;Kousky, 2014, Siders, 2013.…”

Issues and Challenges in Flood Risk Management—Editorial for the Special Issue on Flood Risk Management

“…Two papers in this special issue by Dangendorf et al [21] and Mather et al [22] explore some of the uncertainties associated with changes in the coastal flood management system associated with sea level rise; even more importantly, development and land management choices which can increase vulnerability and exposure to flooding. For example, analysis by Huong and Pathirana [23] in Vietnam showed that flood depths in Can Tho could increase by 20% from urbanization alone.…”