A Pathway for Sustainable Agriculture

Abstract

Expanding populations, the impacts of climate change, availability of arable land, and availability of water for irrigation collectively strain the agricultural system. To keep pace and adapt to these challenges, food producers may adopt unsustainable practices that may ultimately intensify the strain. What is a course of technological evolution and adoption that can break this cycle? In this paper we explore a set of technologies and food production scenarios with a new, reduced-order model. First the model is developed. The model combines limitations in the sustainable water supply, agricultural productivity as a function of intensification, and rising food demands. Model inputs are derived from the literature and historical records. Monte Carlo simulation runs of the model are used to explore the potential of existing and future technologies to bring us ever closer to a more sustainable future instead of ever farther. This is the concept of a moving sustainability horizon (the year in the future where sustainability can be achieved with current technological progress if demand remains constant). The sustainability gap is the number of years between the present and the sustainability horizon. As demand increases, the sustainability horizon moves farther into the future. As technology improves and productivity increases, the sustainability horizon is closer to the present. Sustainability, therefore, is achieved when the sustainability horizon collides with the present, closing the sustainability gap to zero. We find one pathway for water management technology adoption and innovation that closes the sustainability gap within the reduced-order model’s outputs. In this scenario, micro-irrigation adoption, minimal climate change impacts, reduced food waste, and additional transformative innovations such as smart greenhouses and agrivoltaic systems are collectively needed. The model shows that, in the absence of these changes, and continuing along our current course, the productivity of the agricultural system would become insufficient in the decade following 2050.

Sustainable irrigation technologies: a water-energy-food (WEF) nexus perspective towards achieving more crop per drop per joule per hectare

“…It is worrisome that global statistics show that the irrigation systems with a higher WEF nexus performance, i.e. micro-irrigation are the least used (5% of agricultural land) than sprinkler (20% of agricultural land) and surface (75% of agricultural land) which have relatively lower WEF nexus performance (AL-agele et al 2021 ). This excludes the irrigators from LICs, e.g.…”

“…According to ADB ( 2017 ) and AL-agele et al ( 2021 ), pressure is growing on resources. The world must reduce the inputs used per unit of crop produced, for example, by installing efficient drip and sprinkler irrigation systems (FAO 2011 ).…”

“…Despite this, these scenarios explore probable future spaces that can aid in robust decision- and policy-making for sustainable development and management of resources. To sustainably achieve climate-resilient and inclusive growth, irrigation has been touted to be the panacea to food insecurity (Hamidov and Helming 2020 ) because it produces about 40% of the world’s food using energy and 70% of global blue water on 17%–20% of global cultivated land (Rost et al 2008 , Scheierling et al 2014 , Mateos 2016 , FAO 2018 , Fernández García et al 2018 , Scheierling and Treguer 2018 , Sadeghi et al 2020 , AL-agele et al 2021 , Wang et al 2021 ). For context, surface, sprinkler, and drip/trickle irrigation systems globally claim 75%, 20% and 5% of irrigated land, respectively (Mateos 2016 , Fernández García et al 2018 , Scheierling and Treguer 2018 ).…”

Farmers’ Attitudes towards Irrigating Crops with Reclaimed Water in the Framework of a Circular Economy

“…In light of this, the role of agriculture should be underlined, as it is the world's major water consumer, reaching a consumption of up to 90% of the total water supplies in some areas, with this figure expected to worsen in many places [3][4][5][6][7]. Agriculture is also of crucial importance with regard to climate change, one of the greatest threats to both humans and the environment; in addition to its high vulnerability because of extreme and unpredicted weather conditions that increase water scarcity, agriculture contributes up to 14% of greenhouse gas emissions [8][9][10][11][12]. Against this background and taking into account the inherent relationship between water and land use, agriculture plays a key role in the global task of guaranteeing water supply from a sustainability perspective [13][14][15][16].…”

A Variable Rate Drip Irrigation Prototype for Precision Irrigation

“…Ayars et al [4] reviewed a series of subsurface drip irrigation case studies that showed increased yield and crop quality, and reduced water application, weed control, fertilization, and tillage relative to surface irrigation. These efficiency gains lead to increased agriculture production and reduced water loss, and they follow the irrigation innovation technology pathway toward agriculture sustainability [5,6].…”