A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions

Moallemi, Enayat A.; Malekpour, Shirin

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.022

Cited by 84 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…Scenario discovery has been implemented using a number of algorithms (Lempert et al, 2008) such as Classification and Regression Tree (CART) (Breiman et al, 1984) and Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) (Friedman & Fisher, 1999). See (Moallemi et al, 2017, Lempert & Groves, 2010, Moallemi & Malekpour, 2018 for implementations of scenario discovery.…”

Section: Scenario Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing the Delineation of Input Uncertainty Space in Exploratory Modelling Using a Heuristic Approach

Elsawah¹,

Ryan²

2018

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Exploratory modelling is an emerging approach which can address the challenge of model‐based decision making in dealing with input model uncertainties. Exploratory modelling samples from an input uncertainty space and generates extensive computational experiments to analyse possible model behaviours in an output solution space. The way that the input uncertainty space is delineated influences the results of exploratory modelling and its computational cost. In this article, we show the statistical significance of the implication of the size of an input uncertainty space on the resulted output solution space. We also propose a heuristic approach which informs the delineation of input uncertainties by screening the relevant model behaviour in the solution space. An illustrative example of an aircraft fleet management system is used to demonstrate the implementation of our approach in practice. We conclude that the delineation of input uncertainty space can be a way to control simulations in exploratory modelling and to enhance the efficiency of the exploration process and the confidence of the final results.

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Section: Scenario Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing the Delineation of Input Uncertainty Space in Exploratory Modelling Using a Heuristic Approach

Elsawah¹,

Ryan²

2018

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“…Grassroots initiatives have been defined as stimulators of collective action to trigger the gain of responsibility and sustainable consumption goals, and prototypical candidates for societal changes [37]. Similarly, the importance to include social-parameters in the analysis of the development of the incoming energy transitions has been revealed [38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions of Bottom-Up Energy Transitions in Germany: A Case Study Analysis

et al. 2018

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Within the context of an energy transition towards achieving a renewable low-impact energy consumption system, this study analyses how bottom-up initiatives can contribute to state driven top-down efforts to achieve the sustainability related goals of (1) reducing total primary energy consumption; (2) reducing residential electricity and heat consumption; and (3) increasing generated renewable energy and even attaining self-sufficiency. After identifying the three most cited German bottom-up energy transition cases, the initiatives have been qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. The case study methodology has been used and each initiative has been examined in order to assess and compare these with the German national panorama. The novel results of the analysis demonstrate the remarkable effects of communal living, cooperative investment and participatory processes on the creation of a new sustainable energy system. The study supports the claim that bottom-up initiatives could also contribute to energy sustainability goals together within the state driven plans. Furthermore, the research proves that the analysed bottom-up transitions are not only environmentally and socially beneficial but they can also be economically feasible, at least in a small scale, such as the current German national top-down energy policy panorama.

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“…Several planning frameworks built according to the requirements outlined above and some of the suggested mechanisms have been developed and tested in different infrastructure sectors. For example, a regional infrastructure foresight approach has been developed and demonstrated for the sanitation sector (Störmer et al, 2009) and urban water infrastructure (Truffer et al, 2010), participatory exploratory modelling has been developed and used to support long-term planning of energy transitions (Moallemi and Malekpour, 2018), and participatory modelling processes have been developed and applied to support water resources management (Halbe et al, 2018).…”

Section: Governance Towards Sustainability Transitions In the Heatingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Quantitative modelling can strengthen the quality of scenario analysis by providing the possibility to systematically assess the options available to decision-makers under a wide range of potential external conditions and explore the long-term consequences of different options (e.g. Holtz et al, 2015;Moallemi and Malekpour, 2018). For example, analytical and modelling approaches such as multi-criteria analysis (Anderson et al, 2008;, GIS-based modelling (Haslauer et al, 2012) and fault-tree analysis (Kishita et al, 2017) have been demonstrated to be beneficial for the quality of PB outcomes.…”

Section: Challenges Of Scenario Development Within Pb Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…analytical, data-driven and optimisation models (Basco-Carrera et al, 2017). Many PM studies have explored the use of quantitative modelling based on Bayesian networks (Carmona et al, 2013;Maskrey et al, 2016), multi-criteria analysis (Mendoza and Prabhu, 2005) and exploratory modelling (Moallemi and Malekpour, 2018). Attention has also been drawn to the potential of conceptual modelling (e.g.…”

Section: Addressing Challenges With Scenario Development In Participamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Steering sustainability transitions? Modular participatory backcasting for strategic planning in the heating and cooling sector

Pereverza¹

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A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions

Cited by 84 publications

References 84 publications

Informing the Delineation of Input Uncertainty Space in Exploratory Modelling Using a Heuristic Approach

Informing the Delineation of Input Uncertainty Space in Exploratory Modelling Using a Heuristic Approach

Contributions of Bottom-Up Energy Transitions in Germany: A Case Study Analysis

Steering sustainability transitions? Modular participatory backcasting for strategic planning in the heating and cooling sector

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