A participatory Bayesian Belief Network approach to explore ambiguity among stakeholders about socio-ecological systems

Salliou, Nicolas; Barnaud, Cécile; Vialatte, Aude; Monteil, Claude

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.050

Cited by 36 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…These works are most often based on the use of simple BNs (Chan, Ross, Hoverman, & Powell, 2010;Salliou, Vialatte, Monteil, & Barnaud, 2019;Stewart-Koster et al, 2010;Zorrilla et al, 2010), but also, sometimes, dynamic or object-oriented (Molina, Bromley, Bromley, García-Aróstegui, Sullivan, & Benavente, 2010). In Salliou, Barnaud, Vialatte, and Monteil (2017), the authors use BNs to address problems of ambiguity and to try to explain the points of divergence between stakeholders in order to better solve them later on.…”

Section: Bayesian Network As Supporting Toolmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Participatory Bayesian modelling for sustainable and efficient river restoration projects: Feedback from the case study of the Gave de Pau River, Hautes‐Pyrénées, France

Yassine

Pérès

Frysou³

et al. 2020

Contingencies & Crisis Mgmt

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Through the diversity of criteria and stakes, the uncertain nature of the entailed phenomena and the multi‐scale aspects to be taken into account, a river restoration project can be considered as a complex problem. Integrative approaches and modelling tools are thus needed to help river managers make predictions on the evolution of hydromorphological, socio‐economic, safety and ecological issues. Such approach can provide valuable information for handling long‐term management plans that consider the interaction and the balance of stakeholders interests and river system functioning. In this paper, we present a probabilistic participatory modelling (PM) method that assesses the effects of given restoration actions, knowing the hydromorphological modifications that they may induce on the safety, ecological and socio‐economic aspects with the help of local stakeholders through several workshops. To support this strategy, we used Bayesian networks (BNs) as modelling tools as their causal graphs can combine multidimensional knowledge and data from diverse natures. We introduce the causal graphs elaborated with the help of the stakeholders and convert it into BNs that can assist restoration decisions by considering the available decision and utility functions to provide guidance to decision‐makers. This was applied to the “Lac des Gaves” reach in the Hautes‐Pyrénées, France, a reach that has gone through severe sediment extractions for over 50 years. Each network represents possible restoration decisions linked to one of the observed issues. The paper demonstrates how BNs used as a decision support system (DSS) can help to assess the influence of given management strategies on the river system with the consideration of stakeholders’ knowledge and integration in all the modelling process.

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Section: Bayesian Network As Supporting Toolmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…high, medium, low) or quantitative values (e.g. 10 to 20, 20 to 50, 50 to 100) (Salliou et al, 2017); 7.4 Estimate the variable parameters. Each of the variables in a BN is associated with a probability table.…”

Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Participatory Bayesian modelling for sustainable and efficient river restoration projects: Feedback from the case study of the Gave de Pau River, Hautes‐Pyrénées, France

Yassine

Pérès

Frysou³

et al. 2020

Contingencies & Crisis Mgmt

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“…We applied this conceptual framework to analyze data collected during a participatory modelling process conducted from 2014 to 2017, which aimed at exploring the potential of a landscape-based biological pest control approach with key local stakeholders. Previous publications presented some of the methods that were developed and the results obtained from this participatory process [35,40,41]. For the current study, we adopted a broader stance to draw lessons from the whole process.…”

Section: Data Collection: a Participatory Modelling Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Governance of Ecosystem Services in Agroecology: When Coordination is Needed but Difficult to Achieve

2019

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Transitioning towards agroecology involves the integration of biodiversity based ecosystem services into farming systems: for example, relying on biological pest control rather than pesticides. One promising approach for pest control relies on the conservation of semi-natural habitats at the landscape scale to encourage natural enemies of insect pests. However, this approach may require coordination between farmers to manage the interdependencies between the providers and beneficiaries of this ecosystem service. The main objective of this study was to identify hindrances to landscape-scale coordination strategies to control pests. To this end, we used a theoretical framework specifically designed to explore social interdependencies linked to ecosystem services. We applied this framework to a participatory research case study on pest control in apple orchards in southwest France to identify and describe key obstacles. We found four main impediments: (1) The perception of most stakeholders that the landscape does not deliver significant pest control services, (2) the challenge of coping with agroecological uncertainties, (3) an integrated vertical supply chain focused on pesticide use, (4) the existence of independent, non-collective alternatives. We discuss the potential of overcoming these obstacles or turning them into opportunities that promote a transition to agroecology and the integration of ecosystem services in farms and their supply chains.

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“…The divergence or convergence status of different stakeholders' viewpoints can be reach by using Bayesian participatory modelling (Düspohl et al 2012) adapted to the assessment of ambiguities (Salliou et al 2017). Bayesian modelling explicitly takes ontological uncertainties into account because it is based on the elicitation of probabilities, thus integrating the variability of the phenomenon at stake.…”

Section: Jointly Modelling Uncertainty and Ambiguity To Explore The Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Plurality of Viewpoints Regarding the Uncertainties of the Agroecological Transition

Magda

Girard

Angeon

et al. 2019

Agroecological Transitions: From Theory to Practice in Local Participatory Design

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The concept of agroecological transition revives debates on how to deal with complexity and uncertainty. While the adaptive approach and its "adjust along the way" principle have been adopted as a relevant general framework to deal with partially irreducible uncertainty, the different approaches to the definition and management of uncertainty are rarely explicitated. In this chapter we highlight the diversity of these stances through brief presentations of research work that is related to agroecology and sustainable development, and anchored in various disciplines (modelling, management sciences, economics, ecology). This gives us a first glimpse of the variety of concepts used to describe uncertainty, characterising nature and the different approaches to manage it. It shows also that these definitions of uncertainties, clearly derived from particular disciplines or school of thought, can be applied together in a more or less complementary way. Finally, we discuss how

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A participatory Bayesian Belief Network approach to explore ambiguity among stakeholders about socio-ecological systems

Cited by 36 publications

References 42 publications

Participatory Bayesian modelling for sustainable and efficient river restoration projects: Feedback from the case study of the Gave de Pau River, Hautes‐Pyrénées, France

Participatory Bayesian modelling for sustainable and efficient river restoration projects: Feedback from the case study of the Gave de Pau River, Hautes‐Pyrénées, France

Governance of Ecosystem Services in Agroecology: When Coordination is Needed but Difficult to Achieve

A Plurality of Viewpoints Regarding the Uncertainties of the Agroecological Transition

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