A Partial Equilibrium Model of the Malawi Maize Commodity Market

Mapila, Mariam; Kirsten, Johann F.; Meyer, Ferdinard; Kankwamba, Henry

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2245684

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…A series of positive and negative growth rates occurred from 1994 to 2000 resulting in a net 2.2 % per annum. However, low precipitation and undesirable precipitation distribution between 2000 and 2005 decreased the national production potential of maize (Mapila et al 2013). Steady increase in maize production occurred from 2005 to 2008 when the GoM introduced subsidy programs where subsistence farmers could buy farm inputs like fertilizer and seeds at a reduced rate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa

Msowoya

Madani

Davtalab

et al. 2016

Water Resour Manage

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Agriculture is the mainstay of economy in Malawi -the warm heart of Africa. It employs 85 % of the labour force, and produces one third of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 90 % of foreign exchange earnings. Maize farming covers over 92 % of Malawi's agricultural land and contributes over 54 % of national caloric intake. With a subtropical climate and~99 % rainfed agriculture, Malawi relies heavily on precipitation for its agricultural production. Given the significance of rainfed maize for the nation's labour force and GDP, we have investigated climate change effects on this staple crop. We show that rainfed maize production in the Lilongwe District, the largest maize growing district in Malawi, may decrease up to 14 % by mid-century due to climate change, rising to as much as 33 % loss by the century's end. These declines can substantially harm Malawi's food production and socioeconomic status. Supplemental irrigation, crop diversification and natural conservation methods are promising adaptation strategies to improve Malawi's food security and socioeconomic stability.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa

Msowoya

Madani

Davtalab

et al. 2016

Water Resour Manage

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“…The study uses a multi-equation partial equilibrium model of the Malawi maize market that is recursive in nature. The model, developed by Mapila (2011) and adapted by Mapila et al (2013), estimates a set of single equations based on economic theory as well as an understanding of the economic and production dynamics of the maize subsector in Malawi. Time series data from the 1989/90 agricultural season to the 2010/11 agricultural season were used to estimate single equations, which were in turn used to build the partial equilibrium framework.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If household data are available, a household income variable can be included in the estimation of local consumption. See Mapila (2011) and Mapila et al (2013) for the full derivation of a rural household income variable for inclusion in the local economy block.…”

Section: Local Maize Economy Blockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of the logarithmic form ensures that the error terms have a normal distribution and that they are homoscedastic, thus ensuring the validity of the t-and F-statistics. In addition, stationarity of all the time-series data used in developing the Malawi maize model has also been established (for full diagnostic checks see Mapila et al 2013) and therefore the goodness-of-fit measures for the t-statistic of the model remain acceptable.…”

Section: Local Maize Economy Blockmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Alternative Input Subsidy Exit Strategies on Malawi's Maize Commodity Market

Mapila

2013

SSRN Journal

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“…In contrast to a general equilibrium model, a partial equilibrium model allows for far more detailed analyses of the market under consideration with considerably less data. Partial equilibrium models have been applied extensively in both the agricultural economics literature (Tsakok ; Ciaian and Swinnen ; Rude et al ; Mapila et al ) and for modeling the impact of animal disease outbreaks (Chi et al ; Mangen et al ; Chang et al ; Pendell et al ; Paarlberg et al ; Klein and Le Roy ; Hagerman et al ; Paarlberg ).…”

Section: Partial Equilibrium Model Of the Ontario Beef Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economic Impact of a Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Outbreak for Ontario's Beef Sector

Cairns

Tolhurst

Poon

et al. 2016

Canadian J Agri Economics

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Biosecurity is an increasingly prominent concern to the Canadian agri-food sector given heightened public awareness of animal welfare and the continued importance of trade. Due to the potential for large-scale animal depopulation and uncertain trade flow restrictions, the economic costs and animal welfare implications of disease outbreaks have prompted efforts to control their spread within and across trade boundaries. We build a partial equilibrium model of the beef supply chain in Ontario to examine the welfare impacts of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak inside and outside the province. Somewhat surprisingly, economic impacts for Ontario are not dramatically different between an outbreak within the province versus an outbreak in western Canada: losses total $245 and $217 million, respectively. When the outbreak occurs outside Ontario and provincial zoning is recognized, losses total only $93 million. Restrictions on international and, inter-and intra-provincial movement of livestock and beef products are the main driver of losses. A strength of our model is that we are able to disaggregate these impacts across the various market participants (i.e., producers, processors, retailers, consumers). Retailers and consumers incur little to no losses as imports from the United States easily fill shortages in supply. Production losses from livestock movement restrictions and depopulation are partially offset by higher prices, while processors bear the brunt of the losses due to reduced supply and higher livestock prices. La biosécurité revêt de plus en plus d'importance dans le secteur agroalimentaire canadien en raison de la sensibilisation accrue du public au bien-être animal et de l'importance soutenue du commerce. Compte tenu de l'éventualité d'un dépeuplement animalà grandeéchelle et de mesures pouvant restreindre le flux deséchanges commerciaux, le coûtéconomique deséclosions de maladies et leurs répercussions sur le bien-être animal ont stimulé les efforts afin de maîtriser leur propagation tantà l'intérieur qu'à l'extérieur des frontières commerciales. Dans la présenteétude, nous avonsélaboré un modèle d'équilibre partiel de la chaîne d'approvisionnement du boeuf en OntarioCanadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 65 (2017) INTRODUCTIONThe economic costs and animal welfare implications of disease outbreaks-such as the potential for large-scale animal depopulation and uncertain trade flow restrictionshave prompted efforts to control their spread within and across trade boundaries. As a small open trading economy, Canada's beef sector depends on cross-border movement of both livestock and animal products, and thus animal disease outbreaks can be especially harmful. Klein and Le Roy (2010) estimated the 2003 bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak in Alberta caused $4.06 billion in losses to the Canadian beef industry; the temporary closure of live cattle export markets accounted for 96.5% of these losses. A similar outbreak today could have even larger consequences owing to the growth in agrifood tra...

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A Partial Equilibrium Model of the Malawi Maize Commodity Market

Cited by 14 publications

References 25 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa

Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa

The Impact of Alternative Input Subsidy Exit Strategies on Malawi's Maize Commodity Market

The Economic Impact of a Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Outbreak for Ontario's Beef Sector

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