A Paradigm Shift of Compound Extremes over Polar Ice Sheets

Yang, Ran; Hu, Xiaoming; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi; Clem, Kyle; Yang, Song; Xu, Lianlian; Yang, Qinghua

doi:10.34133/olar.0040

Ocean-Land-Atmos Res

2024

DOI: 10.34133/olar.0040

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A Paradigm Shift of Compound Extremes over Polar Ice Sheets

Ran Yang,

Xiaoming Hu,

Ming Cai

et al.

Abstract: The paradigm of compound extremes shifts from hot-dry spells over ex-polar lands to warm-wet extremes over polar ice sheets. This warm-wet synchrony is likely driven by intrusions of warm-moist air from lower latitudes, and under global warming, its net effect could destabilize the polar ice sheets and accelerate global sea level rise.

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2024

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Cited by 2 publications

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References 12 publications

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“…As discussed above, the WNPAC is commonly attributed to the influence of SST forcing, however, previous studies have also suggested that non-SST factors can affect the intensity and location of the WNPAC on interannual time scale (L. X. Chen et al, 2003;Liu & Wu, 2004;Luo et al, 2023;Ren et al, 2016;Yang et al, 2023). For example, B.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of SST in Seasonal Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone: Insights From AMIP Simulations in CMIP6

Wu,

Lin,

Dong

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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The western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) significantly influences the East Asian climate and is modulated by tropical sea surface temperature (SST). This study uses 142 AMIP simulations from 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models to quantify the contributions of SST to the interannual variability of the WNPAC. SST forcing accounts for 66%, 77%, and 49% of the WNPAC variance in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. The persistence of the WNPAC depends on the relaying effects of SST in three tropical oceans. CMIP6 models exhibit excessive precipitation response to the Pacific SST, leading to an overestimated (underestimated) Pacific (Indian Ocean) effect in modulating the summer WNPAC. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric model confirm the crucial role of the Pacific in regulating the WNPAC interannual variation and the contribution from the tropical North Atlantic in spring. The tropical Indian Ocean only exerts a minor impact on the WNPAC when excluding the interactions with other oceans.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of SST in Seasonal Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone: Insights From AMIP Simulations in CMIP6

Wu,

Lin,

Dong

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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Antarctic Warm Extremes Across Seasons and Their Response to Advection

Xu,

Pithan,

Yang

2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Antarctic warm extremes impact the cryosphere, with very warm extremes driving surface melt on ice shelves. Here, we analyze temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile and the associated circulation patterns and radiation anomalies. ERA5 reanalysis data show positive geopotential height anomalies related to the occurrence of warm extremes. The highest temperature during warm extremes appears on the western periphery of high‐pressure systems, consistent with anticyclonic advection. Temperature anomalies during warm extremes are strongest in winter due to the transport of warm and moist air and a strong meridional temperature gradient. In summer, the weak meridional gradients of top‐of‐atmosphere downward solar radiation flux and surface air temperature contribute to weak temperature anomalies. Warm extremes are associated with positive longwave radiation anomalies in all seasons, but with negative shortwave radiation anomalies at the surface except during polar night. These relationships are verified by station observations. Our results confirm that Antarctic warm extremes are mostly driven by meridional advection of warm air, and suggest that these warm air masses are predominantly moist and cloudy.

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A Paradigm Shift of Compound Extremes over Polar Ice Sheets

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

Role of SST in Seasonal Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone: Insights From AMIP Simulations in CMIP6

Role of SST in Seasonal Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone: Insights From AMIP Simulations in CMIP6

Antarctic Warm Extremes Across Seasons and Their Response to Advection

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