A numerical model of the Adriatic for the prediction of high tides at Venice

Finizio, C.; Palmieri, S.; Riccucci, A.

doi:10.1002/qj.49709841508

Cited by 17 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…In the United Kingdom, the Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting (UKCMF) service was established as a direct result of the 1953 floods (Flather, 2000). Presently, the operational system uses the CS3X hydrodynamic model (Flather, 1994), which has a resolution of ∼ 12 km, forced with the Met Office's Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS).…”

Section: The North Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Umgiesser

Bajo

Ferrarin

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.

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Section: The North Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Umgiesser

Bajo

Ferrarin

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Sirocco events can cause storm surge flooding in Venice and they have been studied both numerically and theoretically by many scientists. According to Finizio et al [1972] and Poje and Hrabak‐Tumpa [1982] a sirocco has shear such that maximum wind speeds occur on the Croatian side of the sea. The paper of Orlić et al [1994] predicts upwind flow in the deeper areas of the northern Adriatic and downwind flow in the shallower areas as long as the sirocco wind shear from Italy to Croatia is not too large.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measurements of storm and nonstorm circulation in the northern Adriatic: October 2002 Through April 2003

2007

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Fifteen bottom‐mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers were deployed from October 2002 through April 2003 in the northern Adriatic Sea. Average transport from the portion of the Western Adriatic Current (WAC) along the Italian slope was 0.1470 ± 0.0043 Sv, punctuated by bursts of more than twice that amount during storm events. Monthly means were calculated with times of strong wind‐driven circulation excluded. These suggest a 2002/2003 seasonal separation consisting of October, December through February, and March through April. An extreme Po River flood influenced November conditions making seasonal categorization difficult. October generally had more kinetic energy and more vertical structure than other months, and near‐inertial waves were more frequent in April and October. The Eastern Adriatic Current (EAC)/WAC (i.e. inflow/outflow) system was clearly present in the means for all months. The cyclonic gyre north of the Po River was present October through February. Generally, in the WAC, over 50% of kinetic energy came from vertically uniform monthly mean flows. Elsewhere, eddy kinetic energy was stronger than mean kinetic energy with 10–40% contributions for vertically uniform monthly mean flows, 40–60% for vertically uniform monthly varying flows, and 10–30% for vertically varying monthly varying flows. Mean currents for bora storms indicate enhancement of the EAC/WAC and the cyclonic northern gyre, a shift toward Kvarner Bay in EAC direction, a circulation null point south of the Po, and double‐gyre bifurcation of flow at Istria. Strengthening of both the EAC and WAC also occurs during sirocco storms.

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“…The surges can exceed 1 m in height and, along with the tide (having a spring range of about 80cm), may raise the sea-level at Venice to dangerous values. Both oneand two-dimensional hydrodynamic models of the Adriatic Sea have given satisfactory reproductions of past surges (Finizio, Palmieri & Riccucci 1972;Robinson, Tomasin, & Artegiani 1973;Stravisi 1973;Accerboni & Manca 1973;Michelato 1975). However, the main problem is in the estimation of surface wind speeds over that Sea, taking account of the effects of the neighbouring mountain ranges (Palmieri, FiniLio & Cozzi 1976).…”

Section: Other Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm surges, 1967-1982

Heaps

1983

Geophysical Journal International

135

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Summary. An earlier review of storm surges, covering the forty years up to 1967, is updated. Again the emphasis is on storm surges around the British Isles but, as before, references are also made to surges which occur in other areas. It is shown that the main advance in the work, during the period considered, has been the widespread development and use of two‐dimensional numerical storm‐surge models. The application of these models to operational storm surge forecasting is described. Research evaluating storm‐surge currents, using three‐dimensional models, is considered.

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A numerical model of the Adriatic for the prediction of high tides at Venice

Cited by 17 publications

References 4 publications

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Measurements of storm and nonstorm circulation in the northern Adriatic: October 2002 Through April 2003

Storm surges, 1967-1982

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