A Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East: Myth or Reality?

Abstract

Since the early 2000s Iran's nuclear program has been a major focus of international and regional policy. Many policy makers and scholars have expressed their concern that if Iran “goes nuclear” other Middle Eastern countries, particularly Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, will follow suit. This author argues against this conventional wisdom. As a NATO member, Turkey is a special case. The analysis suggests that security is the main reason why countries pursue nuclear weapons. Egypt and Saudi Arabia (along with other Arab countries) have learned how to live with a perceived nuclear Israel. Iran with a nuclear capability, if it happens, would not pose a security threat to either Cairo or Riyadh. In short, the author argues that an Iran with nuclear capability will further destabilize the Middle East and will be a negative development, but it is not likely to make Egypt and Saudi Arabia “go nuclear.”

India and the Gulf: Regional security and India's multialignment policy

“…Under international pressure and threat of sanctions, Iran had agreed to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of its nuclear plants, but in response to the US withdrawal from JCPOA in 2018, it has incrementally enhanced uranium enrichment and refrained from fulfilling its commitments to the nuclear deal fuelling speculations of it reaching the threshold of developing nuclear weapon (Murphy, 2022). Iran's Arab neighbours feel threatened by the Iranian postures and have in the past expressed the desire to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran does so heightening the fear of nuclear proliferation and race for WMDs in the region (Bahgat, 2011; Kemp, 1991; Stracke, 2008).…”