A novel stochastic method to dispatch microgrids using Monte Carlo scenarios

Fioriti, Davide; Poli, Davide

doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2019.105896

Cited by 38 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The five fuel-fired generators, commissioned between 1988 and 2008, achieve a combined capacity of 4.7 MW. In Table 1 their specs and average operating loads and consumptions for 2018 are reported, showing limited exploitation and coordination of the units, which could be improved by adopting advanced, predictive dispatching strategies [11], [12].…”

Section: Existing Diesel-powered Mini-grid and Desalination Plantmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mini-grid hybridization and demand side management on non-interconnected small islands: the case study of Ustica, Italy

et al. 2021

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Small Mediterranean islands are typically served by mini-grids based on inefficient, polluting and costly diesel generators that provide electricity and freshwater through desalination plants. The study focuses on the case study of the Italian island of Ustica, for which the actual consumption and generation load profiles for 2018 have been used to simulate different scenarios through HOMER Pro software. The scenarios tested the possible integration of renewable energy sources (photovoltaic, small wind turbines) and electrochemical storage in the system, based on a techno-economic, financial, and environmental analysis. In addition to generation-side interventions, demand-side management strategies have been evaluated by considering the desalter as a deferrable load and by introducing energy efficiency measures. Finally, a sensitivity analysis on the most influential parameters (diesel price, discount rate) has been conducted on the base case scenario. The proposed technical solutions are compatible with the environmental and regulatory constraints of the island and lead to reduced emissions and long-term savings. The savings would enable a reduction in the cross-subsidy that the mainland electricity users pay to cover the higher costs incurred for diesel generation in non-interconnected small islands.

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Section: Existing Diesel-powered Mini-grid and Desalination Plantmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mini-grid hybridization and demand side management on non-interconnected small islands: the case study of Ustica, Italy

et al. 2021

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“…To overcome complexity and computational requirements of standard SO procedures, other approaches, for the first time referred to as Aggregating-Rule-based Stochastic Optimization (ARSO) in [15], decompose the N-scenarios problem into N deterministic sub-problems and then aggregate the results based on different methodologies [15]- [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the deterministic optimization of each subproblem is similar, the difference between the different ARSO approaches is mainly related to the aggregation criterion, which can be statistical-based [16], weighted-average [18], cost-based [15], or mixed [17]. Authors in [16] agglomerate the solution from the first stage to identify the probabilistic dispatching of the system by aggregating the results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A mixed ARSO methodology was proposed in [17] for a reconfigurable microgrid: the grid topology was set with a statistical approach, while the generator scheduling with a weighted-average approach. Instead, the method proposed in [15] collects the optimal scheduling of the deterministic sub-problems and simulates the corresponding real-time system operation of each of them to evaluate the expected operating costs, given the probability density function of the forecasting errors. This methodology has performed very well with respect to traditional Stochastic Optimization (SO), but limited comparisons to ARSO approaches have been developed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The methodology suggested in [15] has shown promising results, but further studies are needed to highlight benefits. Therefore, in this paper we propose a comparison between mixed and cost-based ARSO methodologies and typical SO and DO approaches.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stochastic operation of isolated microgrids: aggregating-rule-based optimization versus standard approaches

et al. 2021

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Stochastic operation of power systems has risen attention of researchers as fluctuating energy sources like renewables are being increasingly integrated into existing grids. Uncertainties can be higher in small power systems like isolated microgrids, where both renewables and load can be extremely unpredictable, thus causing increasing operating costs and business risks. In the last years, many approaches have been proposed to account for uncertainties in off-grid microgrids, usually simulating several size, load and renewables scenarios. Among them, a simplified stochastic approach, namely Aggregating-Rule-based Stochastic Optimization (ARSO), which decomposes the N-scenario problem into N deterministic subproblems whose solutions are finally processed and aggregated, has been recently proposed with interesting results in terms of optimality of results and computational requirements. In this paper, two ARSO approaches are compared with standard stochastic and deterministic methodologies used to operate isolated microgrids, to assess advantages and drawbacks of all these techniques and their ability in handling uncertainties. The two ARSO methodologies differ in the aggregating rule: to take into account the load and RES forecasting errors, the Improved-ARSO employs a Monte Carlo procedure, whereas the Mixed ARSO technique makes use of statistical rules. A numerical case study for a typical isolated microgrid in Africa is proposed and discussed.

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Interval power flow analysis of microgrids with uncertainties: an approach using the second-order Taylor series expansion

Sousa

Melo

2021

Electr Eng

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A novel stochastic method to dispatch microgrids using Monte Carlo scenarios

Cited by 38 publications

References 33 publications

Mini-grid hybridization and demand side management on non-interconnected small islands: the case study of Ustica, Italy

Mini-grid hybridization and demand side management on non-interconnected small islands: the case study of Ustica, Italy

Stochastic operation of isolated microgrids: aggregating-rule-based optimization versus standard approaches

Interval power flow analysis of microgrids with uncertainties: an approach using the second-order Taylor series expansion

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