A novel scheme to derive optimized circulation pattern classifications for downscaling and forecast purposes

Enke, W.; Schneider, F.; Deutschländer, Thomas

doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0116-x

Cited by 64 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The time series of daily weather patterns available for the period 1961-2065 was derived using an objective classification of weather patterns in accordance with Enke et al (2005b). The principle of the method consists in approximating empirically given weather classes by a combination of meteorological predictor fields from the ERA40 reanalyses and recognizing the field combinations found in the predictor fields simulated using the global circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM T63L31 .…”

Section: Weather Pattern Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to minimize systematic errors, seasonally dependent correction fields were taken into consideration for the predictors (the difference between ERA40 reanalysis and control run ECHAM5/MPI-OM T63L31 for 1961-2000) during screening. A recognition rate of 80% of the given weather (precipitation) classes was reached with the screening process (Enke et al, 2005b). The construction of the daily weather pattern time series for the projection period 2001-2065 was based on a screening discriminant analysis (cluster method).…”

Section: Weather Pattern Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Time series with classes of regionally-valid weather patterns were used as the master variable. These were derived using ERA40 reanalyses (Uppala et al, 2005) and ECHAM5/MPI-OM T63L31 simulations (Roeckner et al, 2003) of meteorological fields using an objective method (Enke et al, 2005b). The local heavy precipitation behaviour was described via the statistical heavy precipitation, ρ s , being a function of the duration δ and the return period τ .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A method for deriving a future temporal spectrum of heavy precipitation on the basis of weather patterns in low mountain ranges

Franke

Bernhofer

2009

Meteorological Applications

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A weather-pattern-based multiple regression model to derive future possible changes in the level of the higher temporal resolution spectrum of heavy precipitation has been developed. The temporal spectrum was described using statistical precipitation amounts as a function of the event's duration (1-24 h) and return period (once in 5 yr to once in 100 yr). The principle of the method consists in projecting a statistical relationship between the parameters of a transformed Gumbel distribution (theoretical extreme value distribution) and the distribution of classes of objective weather patterns to time slices in the near future of climate. Changes in distribution parameters were constructed in the model from changes in the distribution of weather patterns. Possible change signals were calculated for the catchment of the Weißeritz River (Ore Mountains, Germany) for the time slices centred around 2025 (2011-2040) and 2050 (2036-2065) as changes versus the reanalyses of the reference period 1961-2000 (May-September). For the climate conditions to be expected in the near future (IPCC A1B scenario), increases in the amounts of heavy precipitation, i.e. decreases in the return periods of equal amounts of heavy precipitation from the reference period, were obtained for the entire temporal spectrum covered by this paper. Overall, the change signals derived on the basis of a concept of weather patterns seem plausible because they represent a possible continuation of the already observed increase in frequency and intensification of events of heavy precipitation in the extended study area.

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Section: Weather Pattern Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Weather Pattern Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A method for deriving a future temporal spectrum of heavy precipitation on the basis of weather patterns in low mountain ranges

Franke

Bernhofer

2009

Meteorological Applications

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“…However, some situations are classified as A, only because several small low-pressure spots are found around the centre of calculation in the SLP field. This might explain the unusual rainfall occurrence on days with CWT A. In-group variability (cf Enke et al, 2005) in the CWTs is measured using the standard deviation (RMSE) from the composite of the respective CWT (Figure 3, right column). It is found below 6 hPa in the direct research area but reaches values above 10 hPa (thick line) over the North Atlantic.…”

Section: Calculation Of Cwtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When aiming at precipitation, humidity fields are most beneficial (e.g. Enke et al, 2005). However, in the region investigated here, a very dry boundary layer often prevents rainfall from reaching the ground, and humidity advection is often limited to relatively thin layers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Downscaling of current and future rainfall climatologies for southern Morocco. Part I: Downscaling method and current climatology

Huebener

Kerschgens

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Abstract:The use of a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach to obtain a high-resolution rainfall climatology for a subtropical region in southern Morocco is analysed. The statistical part of the downscaling uses Circulation Weather Types (CWTs) as a measure for near-surface wind fields calculated from sea-level pressure (SLP) data. The daily CWTs are correlated with daily rainfall data at three different climate stations in the region for the period 1978-1997 and systematic differences are discussed. Results are viewed for one extreme dry year (1984) and one extreme wet year (1989) to show the limits of purely statistical downscaling.Dynamical downscaling is realized for representative days to enable statistical-dynamical downscaling. Comparison of statistically-dynamically downscaled rainfall with measured rainfall for the year 2002 and climatological results show that the method is capable of capturing the relevant mechanisms triggering rainfall in the area. For extreme dry (wet) years, rainfall is overestimated (underestimated) by the method and errors might occur even for normal years. However, application to a climatology calculated for the period 1958-1997 via analysing daily SLP fields from NCEP Reanalyses gives satisfactory results. For sufficiently long periods, the method is well capable of producing a reliable high-resolution rainfall climatology. We will therefore apply the method to climate change simulations in part II of this paper.

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Do Changing Weather Types Explain Observed Climatic Trends in the Rhine Basin? An Analysis of Within‐ and Between‐Type Changes

et al. 2018

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For attributing hydrological changes to anthropogenic climate change, catchment models are driven by climate model output. A widespread approach to bridge the spatial gap between global climate and hydrological catchment models is to use a weather generator conditioned on weather patterns (WPs). This approach assumes that changes in local climate are characterized by between‐type changes of patterns. In this study we test this assumption by analyzing a previously developed WP classification for the Rhine basin, which is based on dynamic and thermodynamic variables. We quantify changes in pattern characteristics and associated climatic properties. The amount of between‐ and within‐type changes is investigated by comparing observed trends to trends resulting solely from WP occurrence. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901–2010 with a minimum length of 31 years are analyzed. Increasing frequency is found for some patterns associated with high precipitation, although the trend sign highly depends on the considered period. Trends and interannual variations of WP frequencies are related to the long‐term variability of large‐scale circulation modes. Long‐term WP internal warming is evident for summer patterns and enhanced warming for spring/autumn patterns since the 1970s. Observed trends in temperature and partly in precipitation are mainly associated with frequency changes of specific WPs, but some amount of within‐type changes remains. The classification can be used for downscaling of past changes considering this limitation, but the inclusion of thermodynamic variables into the classification impedes the downscaling of future climate projections.

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A novel scheme to derive optimized circulation pattern classifications for downscaling and forecast purposes

Cited by 64 publications

References 22 publications

A method for deriving a future temporal spectrum of heavy precipitation on the basis of weather patterns in low mountain ranges

A method for deriving a future temporal spectrum of heavy precipitation on the basis of weather patterns in low mountain ranges

Downscaling of current and future rainfall climatologies for southern Morocco. Part I: Downscaling method and current climatology

Do Changing Weather Types Explain Observed Climatic Trends in the Rhine Basin? An Analysis of Within‐ and Between‐Type Changes

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