A novel nomogram to predict the impact of polymorphism and plasma level of Mfn2 on risk of ischemic cardiomyopathy

Abstract

Objectives In this study, we aimed to investigate the relation of polymorphism as well as plasma level of Mitofusion2(Mfn2) and occurrence of ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM), then develop a predictive model which can predict the risk of ICM. Methods A total of 2052 participants were included in this study. These participants were randomly assigned to the training group [n = 1412 (70%)] and the validation group [n = 640 (30%)]. Univariable analysis was performed in the training group. Then, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model were adopted, then, a multivariable logistic regression was performed to build the predictive model. We then constructed a nomogram incorporating the variables regarded as independent predictive factors using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Evaluated the model by Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The independent predicting factors incorporated into this nomogram were age, hemoglobin concentration, diabetes, ejection fraction, left-ventricular diastolic-end diameter, plasma Mfn2 concentration, and mutation in rs1042842 and rs2295281. Our constructed nomogram displayed favorable discrimination ability, Besides, the Hosmer–Lemshow test suggested that the model exhibited good consistency (P training group = 0.2655; P validation group = 0.3315). DCA revealed that our constructed ICM nomogram showed clinical benefits. Conclusions The plasma level of Mfn2 is a protective factor of ICM. Mutations of rs1042842 and rs2295281 are risk factors for ICM.