A novel method for reliability assessment of autonomous PV-wind-storage system using probabilistic storage model

Optimal planning of stand-alone microgrids incorporating reliability

“…Based on the above assumptions, the probability distribution of the states at hour t in scenario k can be calculated as (7) and (8). The expression of the conditional probability related to (8) and the derivation of (8) are illustrated in the Appendix.…”

“…The expression of the conditional probability related to (8) and the derivation of (8) are illustrated in the Appendix.…”

“…A reliability index is usually treated as either an objective [3] or a constraint [2], [4], [7], which can be evaluated using analytical methods [7]- [8], or Monte Carlo simulation [9], [10]. To consider the impacts of the volatility of power outputs of the distributed generators on the system reliability, multistate models are developed in [11], [12]- [13].…”

“…However, these studies have paid little attention to modeling of the BESS used to balance power for RESs. A probabilistic model for BESS is introduced in [7], [8], considering multiple states of state of charge (SOC) and probability associated with each state.…”

“…Then, an approximate analytical model for reliability evaluation of BESS is demonstrated, cooperating with multistate models for DGs [16] and WTGs [12], to assess the reliability performances of various system configurations. The proposed model for BESS takes into account the forced outage rates (FORs) of equipment, which is different from the one developed in [7], [8].…”