A Novel Method for Estimating Emissions Reductions Caused by the Restriction of Mobility: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is the single largest event in contemporary history in terms of the global restriction of mobility, with the majority of the world population experiencing various forms of “lockdown”. This phenomenon incurred increased amounts of teleworking and time spent at home, fewer trips to shops, closure of retail outlets selling non-essential goods, and the near disappearance of leisure and recreational activities. This paper presents a novel method for an economy-wide estimate of the emissions reductions caused by the restriction of movement. Using a global multiregional macro-economic model complemented by Google Community Mobility Reports (CMRs) and national transport data, we cover 129 individual countries and quantify direct and indirect global emissions reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG; 1173 Mt), PM 2.5 (0.23 Mt), SO 2 (1.57 Mt), and NO x (3.69 Mt). A statistically significant correlation is observed between cross-country emission reductions and the stringency of mobility restriction policies. Due to the aggregated nature of the CMRs, we develop different scenarios linked to consumption, work, and lifestyle aspects. Global reductions are on the order of 1–3% (GHG), 1–2% (PM 2.5 ), 0.5–2.8% (SO 2 ), and 3–4% (NO x ). Our results can help support crucial decision making in the post-COVID world, with quantified information about how direct and indirect consequences of mobility changes benefit the environment.

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

“…Avoid: active travel in highly accessible cities; teleworking supported by compact, highly accessible city design and safe infrastructures for pedestrians and cyclists. Teleworking or telecommuters partially or entirely replace their out-of-home work activities by working at home or at locations close to home 90. ; Brand et al91 ;Creutzig et al32,55 ; Ivanova et al 92 ; Riggs 32 ; Mrkajic et al 11 ; Senbel et al 93 Shift: shared mobility and convenient and safe public transit.…”

Could practices of reduced consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic facilitate transformative change for sustainability? Experiences from Sweden and Ireland

“…Seen together, these long-term lifestyle transformation possibilities are perhaps not overly impressive, but neither are they insignificant or irrelevant. Some practices in relation to eating, mobility, shopping, leisure, and work will likely stay (online shopping/entertainment/socializing, homebody practices, see e.g., Ehgartner and Boons, 2020;Shamshiripour et al, 2020;Echegaray, 2021;Perkins et al, 2021;Pomponi et al, 2021). Because the pandemic has lasted a long time, new practices get sufficient time to bolster, and once you have changed practices there is a resistance to change back again (de Haas et al, 2020).…”

A multi-disciplinary approach to estimate the medium-term impact of COVID-19 on transport and energy: A case study for Italy

“…Meso-economic modelling frameworks are adopted for determining the short-term impacts on environmental and economic indicators for distinguishing amongst highly disaggregated economic sectors. Lenzen and colleagues [ 23 , 24 ] estimated an annual reduction of gross domestic product (GDP) and greenhouse gases (GHG) on a global basis of about 4.2% and 4.5% respectively through a global input-output model using disaster impact analysis. Pichler et al analysed the economics and the epidemiology of reopening UK’s commercial and educational activities, capturing the complexity of supply and demand shocks on production networks through a purpose-built input-output model, investigating the trade-off between containing the spread of the virus and limiting the economic downturn [ 25 ].…”