A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

Yan, Pengcheng; Feng, Guolin; Hou, Wei

doi:10.5194/npg-22-249-2015

Cited by 8 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Details of the proposed method have been thoroughly discussed (Yan et al, 2015); a brief description is as follows. A biological model was created, and it is a complex system (May, 1976).…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The physical meanings of the parameters (µ, ν, κ) were thoroughly discussed (Yan et al, 2014(Yan et al, , 2015. This paper introduces how to estimate the parameters based on a time series.…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By understanding the climate change events from the perspective of the transition period, more phenomenon about climate change would be exposed. Thus, a new concept about the transition process of climate change has been proposed, and the detection method was created (Yan et al, 2015). By referring to the work of Fu and Wang (1992), there are four types of climate change: change in mean, change in variance, change in trend, and change of seesaw.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All four kinds of climate change could be transformed to be "change in mean" with mathematical methods; therefore, the detection method focuses mainly on climate change in mean. Five climate change processes of the Pacific decadal oscillation index were identified (Yan et al, 2015) and the climate change process with a 500 hPa temperature field was also analyzed (Yan et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The mode could represent different degrees of change. It has been noticed that climate change has a relationship with the length of time sequence (Yan et al, 2015); thus, a sub-sequence is extracted from the entire sequence for regression. A group of parameters can be obtained when the sub-sequence moves on the entire time sequence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

Yan

Hou

Feng

2016

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract.A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

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“…Details of the proposed method have been thoroughly discussed (Yan et al, 2015); a brief description is as follows. A biological model was created, and it is a complex system (May, 1976).…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

Yan

Hou

Feng

2016

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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The Variation Characteristics of Asian Surface Temperature and Precipitation in the Early 21st Century

Kuo

Feng

et al. 2016

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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Based on the analysis of the feature of Asian continent becoming cold in the early 21st century winter under the background of global warming, the Asian Warming Hole (AWH) index is proposed in this paper to measure the intensity during the cold events process. Result shows that the Asian continent is indeed experiencing a cold stage in the early 21st century winter, but it is just in a cold phase and will become warmer in the future. In recent years the activity of the winter cold events has an obvious quasi-four-year cycle, which can be reflected by atmospheric circulation, and AO (Arctic Oscillation) may play a very important role. It is credible that Asian surface temperature will be higher in the coming 3-4 years compared with 2011 winter, signifying that the precipitation may increase correspondingly.

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Understanding the Abrupt Climate Change in the Mid-1970s from a Phase-Space Transform Perspective

Dai

Dong

Guo

et al. 2018

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Abrupt climate change may cause heat, drought, and flood disasters. In this study, we find that many climate factors [e.g., the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] show a decadal-scale abrupt change in the 1970s. To analyze this phenomenon thoroughly, a new method of pedigree clustering combined with phase-space analysis (PCPSA) is used to establish two-dimensional phase-space coordinate systems of EASM–AO, EASM–PDO, and AO–PDO and the three-dimensional phase-space coordinate system of EASM–AO–PDO. By using the PCPSA method, it is found that all of the phase-space coordinate systems have a significant abrupt change in the mid-1970s, with a transition period, and the fit to the abrupt change of the phase-space coordinate system is better than 80%, which indicates excellent fit. By analyzing the correlation of EASM, AO, and PDO with sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), it is found that SLP has an obvious weakening trend in the high latitudes and an increasing trend in the tropics while SST has an increasing trend in most of the Southern Hemisphere waters and a minor weakening trend in the North Pacific Ocean waters between 30° and 40°N. Therefore, the abrupt climate change of the 1970s may well be a global abrupt change of the climatic system.

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A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

Cited by 8 publications

References 24 publications

Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

The Variation Characteristics of Asian Surface Temperature and Precipitation in the Early 21st Century

Understanding the Abrupt Climate Change in the Mid-1970s from a Phase-Space Transform Perspective

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