A North American Gas Trade Model (GTM)

Beltramo, Mark A.; Manne, Alan S.; Weyant, John P.

doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol7-no3-2

Cited by 23 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Our work follows NANGAM in this regard and employs logarithmic production cost functions and endogenous capacity expansion decisions at the same time. Other notable natural gas market models of various types in the literature include: GTM (Beltramo et al, 1986), an earlier North America-focused natural gas market equilibrium model formulated in a nonlinear transportation model fashion; BIWGTM (Hartley and Medlock, 2006), a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model for the world natural gas market; COLOMBUS (Hecking and Panke, 2012), which is an MCP model; Egging (2013), where the author built a stochastic global gas model using an MCP formulation and implemented a Benders decomposition algorithm to solve it; GaMMES (Abada et al, 2013), which is a dynamic generalized Nash-Cournot model; Huppmann and Egging (2014), where the authors incorporated endogenous fuel substitution into a market equilibrium model; and Arora and Cai (2014), a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.…”

Section: Review Of Mcps and Modeling Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions

Çalcı¹,

Leibowicz²,

Bard³

2022

The Energy Journal

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Strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand growth, especially in Asia, could increasingly motivate gas infrastructure development in North America. Nevertheless, opposition to new gas infrastructure is formidable in some of the U.S. states and Canadian provinces that are well positioned to supply LNG to the Asian market. In this paper, we investigate the combined effects of LNG demand growth and export infrastructure restrictions on North American natural gas markets through 2050. To do so, we build a mixed complementarity model with endogenous capacity investments. It is parameterized using publicly available data sources. Our results show that even if new export terminals cannot be constructed on the West Coast, LNG exports largely shift to other regions rather than suffer an overall decline. Increasing external demand for LNG puts upward pressure on regional prices in North America, and directs production and pipeline flows toward the regions that export LNG.

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Section: Review Of Mcps and Modeling Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions

Çalcı¹,

Leibowicz²,

Bard³

2022

The Energy Journal

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“…where 𝑠 𝑗𝑖 is gas supply from j to i, Cj(•) is total production cost and 𝑡 𝑗𝑖 is transport cost; we assume constant marginal cost of production at i or 𝐶 𝑖 ′ (•) = 𝑐 𝑖 ; Tij is upper transport capacity limit while Qj is upper production capacity; One can see that except for the middle square bracketed term, the objective function (eq. 1) of this non-linear maximization problem is similar to the standard 'social welfare' maximization problem used to calculate perfectly competitive equilibria in spatial commodity markets (Samuelson 1952;Harker, 1986;Labys and Yang, 1991) and, specifically, natural gas markets (e.g., Boucher and Smeers, 1985;Beltramo et al, 1986;Boucher and Smeers, 1987;Boots et al, 2004;Kiss et al, 2016). For example, the term in the first square bracket is gross consumer surplus generated at all consumption nodes i by consuming 𝑑 𝑖 while the term in the last square bracket is total supply cost of all producing nodes j; The middle term allows transformation of the standard perfect competition condition 'price equals marginal cost' to 'marginal revenue equal marginal cost'.…”

Section: Note 3: Main Data Inputs and Assumptions For Modelling A31 T...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Market Power and Long-term Gas Contracts: The Case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets

Chyong¹,

Reiner²,

Aggarwal³

2023

The Energy Journal

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We explore a major European competition decision, the 2012-18 Gazprom case, using a global gas market simulation model. We find that access to LNG markets alone is insufficient to counterbalance Gazprom's strategic behaviour; central and eastern Europe (CEE) needs to be well interconnected with bidirectional flow capability. 'Swap deals' created by the decision facilitate CEE market integration, while limiting Gazprom's potential market power. Such deals may increase the diversity of contracted gas and number of market players, but do not improve physical supply diversity. In the next five years, swap deals could marginally impact negatively the utilization of strategic assets in CEE, but since Gazprom's commitments expire by mid-2026, utilization of these strategic assets may fall considerably, especially if Gazprom withholds supplies. As an unintended consequence, CEE markets may disintegrate from the rest of Europe. Avoiding such outcomes will require further gas market reforms, particularly, market design for gas transportation.

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“…Scholars use different methods to summarize energy research. Beltramo et al [1] constructed a trade model (GTM) for the natural gas market in North America. Research and analysis show that natural gas in North America is basically a self-sufficient system.…”

Section: Research On Energy Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the Trade Characteristics of Conventional Energy Network Countries: Based on the Trade Characteristics of Leading Countries

et al. 2022

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To study the trade characteristics and important trends of leading countries in conventional energy networks, this paper uses trade data on coal, oil and natural gas based on complex network theory; constructs a comprehensive directed weighted network; and analyzes the trade relations, trade volume, betweenness centrality and trade groups of China, the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. The results show that import and export trade relations exhibit the characteristics of power-law distribution, but the four countries are developing toward diversified trading partners. The United States has the greatest advantage in obtaining conventional energy and has the strongest control over energy. China’s advantage in obtaining conventional energy shows a downward trend, but its control over energy is second only to the United States. Saudi Arabia has the least advantage in obtaining energy and the weakest control, and it is an energy supplier. Russia’s trading bloc is the most stable. These four countries played a leading role in their trade bloc in most years.

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A North American Gas Trade Model (GTM)

Cited by 23 publications

References 3 publications

North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions

North American Natural Gas Markets Under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions

Market Power and Long-term Gas Contracts: The Case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets

Research on the Trade Characteristics of Conventional Energy Network Countries: Based on the Trade Characteristics of Leading Countries

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