A normative model for Bayesian combination of subjective probability estimates
Susanne Trick,
Constantin A. Rothkopf,
Frank Jäkel
Abstract:Combining experts’ subjective probability estimates is a fundamental task with broad applicability in domains ranging from finance to public health. However, it is still an open question how to combine such estimates optimally. Since the beta distribution is a common choice for modeling uncertainty about probabilities, here we propose a family of normative Bayesian models for aggregating probability estimates based on beta distributions. We systematically derive and compare different variants, including hierar… Show more
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