A non-parametric panel model for climate data with seasonal and spatial variation

Abstract

We consider a panel data model that allows for heterogeneous time trends at different locations. The model is well suited to identifying trends in climate data recorded at multiple stations. We propose a new estimation method for the model and derive an asymptotic theory for the proposed estimation method. For inferential purposes, we develop a bootstrap method for the case where weak correlation presents in both dimensions of the error terms. We examine the finite-sample properties of the proposed model and estimation method through extensive simulated studies. Finally, we use the newly proposed model and method to investigate monthly rainfall, temperature, and sunshine data of the UK, respectively. Overall, we find spring and winter have changed significantly over the past 50 years. Changes vary with respect to locations for the other seasons.