A non-parametric hazard model to characterize the spatio-temporal occurrence of large earthquakes; an application to the Italian catalogue

Faenza, Licia; Marzocchi, Warner; Boschi, E.

doi:10.1046/j.1365-246x.2003.02068.x

Cited by 55 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…There is a unequivocal relationship between the hazard function and other statistics (i.e., the density function, the survivor function and the cumulative function), and it defines without ambiguity the time distribution of the point process. Moreover, its trend in time shows if the statistic indicates any kind of cycling behaviour (increasing trend), cluster behaviour (decreasing trend) or a random behaviour (constant trend), as already discussed in Sornette and Knopoff (1997) and Faenza et al (2003). So far, in geosciences, the stress release model (VereJones, 1987; and many other application of it) and the ETAS model (Ogata, 1988(Ogata, , 1998 are based on the study of the hazard rate function.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In a recent paper (Faenza et al, 2003), a non-parametric and multivariate method has been applied in order to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes in Italy . This method drastically reduces the a priori assumption on the temporal domain and allows to find a base-line hazard function, which trend versus time provides information on the earthquake generation mechanism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe seismicity

2009

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The aim of this paper is to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of Central-Europe seismicity. Specifically, by using a non-parametric statistical approach, the proportional hazard model, leading to an empirical estimation of the hazard function, we provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanisms. The results indicate that the most conspicuous characteristics of M W 4.0+ earthquakes is a temporal clustering lasting a couple of years. This suggests that the probability of occurrence increases immediately after a previous event. After a few years, the process becomes almost time independent. Furthermore, we investigate the cluster properties of the seismicity of Central-Europe, by comparing the obtained result with the one of synthetic catalogs generated by the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, which previously have been successfully applied for short term clustering. Our results indicate that the ETAS is not well suited to describe the seismicity as a whole, while it is able to capture the features of the shortterm behaviour. Remarkably, similar results have been previously found for Italy using a higher magnitude threshold.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe seismicity

2009

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“…It suggests that the return period of major earthquakes must be searched and analyzed at the national/regional scale other than locally (i.e., for single faults or systems of connected faults). My analysis is someway related to previous works on the clustering of strong earthquakes in Italy (Faenza et al 2003(Faenza et al , 2004Lombardi and Marzocchi 2009). Those studies use much more complex statistical models that take into account both time and spatial characteristics of seismicity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Periodicity of Strong Seismicity in Italy: Schuster Spectrum Analysis Extended to the Destructive Earthquakes of 2016

Bragato

2017

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-The strong earthquakes that occurred in Italy between 2009 and 2016 represent an abrupt acceleration of seismicity in respect of the previous 30 years. Such behavior seems to agree with the periodic rate change I observed in a previous paper. The present work improves that study by extending the data set up to the end of 2016, adopting the latest version of the historical seismic catalog of Italy, and introducing Schuster spectrum analysis for the detection of the oscillatory period and the assessment of its statistical significance. Applied to the declustered catalog of M w C 6 earthquakes that occurred between 1600 and 2016, the analysis individuates a marked periodicity of 46 years, which is recognized above the 95% confidence level. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the oscillatory behavior is stable in respect of random errors on magnitude estimation. A parametric oscillatory model for the annual rate of seismicity is estimated by likelihood maximization under the hypothesis of inhomogeneous Poisson point process. According to the Akaike Information Criterion, such model outperforms the simpler homogeneous one with constant annual rate. A further element emerges form the analysis: so far, despite recent earthquakes, the Italian seismicity is still within a long-term decreasing trend established since the first half of the twentieth century.

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“…In a first approximation, SAs behave according to a Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency distribution. The scientific community is equally divided about the implementation priorities of timedependent probability models (see, for example, the Straw Poll Results in Workshop 7 at http:// www.wgcep.org); characteristic earthquakes, seismic gaps, and quasiperiodicity models are alternative views to those statistical studies (e.g., Jackson 1991, 1999;Faenza et al 2003 for Italy), suggesting earthquake clustering in space and time. In these last studies, long-term forecasts are essentially an empirical description of observed spatial clustering; the temporal clustering is based on some completeness assumptions of having a record of observed events sufficient for statistical purposes.…”

Section: Individual Seismogenic Sources and Characteristic Earthquakementioning

confidence: 99%

Error propagation in time-dependent probability of occurrence for characteristic earthquakes in Italy

2008

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Time-dependent models for seismic hazard and earthquake probabilities are at the leading edge of research nowadays. In the framework of a 2-year national Italian project (2005)(2006)(2007), we have applied the Brownian passage time (BPT) renewal model to the recently released Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS) to compute earthquake probability in the period 2007-2036. Observed interevent times on faults in Italy are absolutely insufficient to characterize the recurrence time. We, therefore, derived mean recurrence intervals indirectly. To estimate the uncertainty of the results, we resorted to the theory of error propagation with respect to the main parameters: magnitude and slip rate. The main issue concerned the high variability of slip Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10950-008-9131-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.L. Peruzza (B) · F. Cavallini OGS-Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale, Sgonico, Trieste, Italy e-mail: lperuzza@inogs.it B. Pace GEOSISLAB-Università degli Studi "G. D'Annunzio", Chieti Scalo, Italy rate, which could hardly be reduced by exploiting geodetic constraints. We did some validation tests, and interesting considerations were derived from seismic moment budgeting on the historical earthquake catalog. In a time-dependent perspective, i.e., when the date of the last event is known, only 10-15% of the 115 sources exhibit a probability of a characteristic earthquake in the next 30 years higher than the equivalent Poissonian probabilities. If we accept the Japanese conventional choice of probability threshold greater than 3% in 30 years to define "highly probable sources," mainly intermediate earthquake faults with characteristic M < 6, having an elapsed time of 0.7-1.2 times the recurrence interval are the most "prone" sources. The number of highly probable sources rises by increasing the aperiodicity coefficient (from 14 sources in the case of variable α ranging between 0.22 and 0.36 to 31 sources out of 115 in the case of an α value fixed at 0.7). On the other hand, in stationary time-independent approaches, more than two thirds of all sources are considered probabilistically prone to an impending earthquake. The performed tests show the influence of the variability of the aperiodicity factor in the BPT renewal model on the absolute probability values. However, the influence on the relative ranking of sources is small. Future developments should give priority to a more accurate determination of the date of the last seismic event for a few seismogenic sources of the DISS catalog 120 J Seismol (2010) 14:119-141 and to a careful check on the applicability of a purely characteristic model.

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A non-parametric hazard model to characterize the spatio-temporal occurrence of large earthquakes; an application to the Italian catalogue

Cited by 55 publications

References 36 publications

Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe seismicity

Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe seismicity

Periodicity of Strong Seismicity in Italy: Schuster Spectrum Analysis Extended to the Destructive Earthquakes of 2016

Error propagation in time-dependent probability of occurrence for characteristic earthquakes in Italy

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