A Non Parametric Exact Test Based on the Number of Records for an Early Detection of Emerging Events: Illustration in Epidemiology

Khraibani, Zaher; Jacob, Christophe; Ducrot, Christian; Charras-Garrido, Myriam; Sala, Carole

doi:10.1080/03610926.2013.799695

Cited by 9 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…According to Table 2, the probability to observe at least m records among n variables increases with n. This table is used to compute the significance level of the test of H 0 : α = P(reject the sporadic hypothesis). We decided then to apply the results of Khraibani et al [8] to investigate if the incidence rate of Zaher Khraibani et al…”

Section: Illustration Of the Records Test On Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The records theory has been successfully applied in several scientific areas like hydrology, meteorology, epidemiology, sports and natural phenomena (see for details [8][9][10][11][12][13][14]). In this study, we used a non-parametric test developed by Khraibani et al in 2015 [8] and based on the number of records for the early detection of emerging events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Application of records theory on the COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon: prediction and prevention

Khraibani

Kobeissi

et al. 2020

Epidemiol. Infect.

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Given the fast spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) worldwide and its classification by the World Health Organization (WHO) as being one of the worst pandemics in history, several scientific studies are carried out using various statistical and mathematical models to predict and study the likely evolution of this pandemic in the world. In the present research paper, we present a brief study aiming to predict the probability of reaching a new record number of COVID-19 cases in Lebanon, based on the record theory, giving more insights about the rate of its quick spread in Lebanon. The main advantage of the records theory resides in avoiding several statistical constraints concerning the choice of the underlying distribution and the quality of the residuals. In addition, this theory could be used, in cases where the number of available observations is somehow small. Moreover, this theory offers an alternative solution in case where machine learning techniques and long-term memory models are inapplicable because they need a considerable amount of data to be performant. The originality of this paper lies in presenting a new statistical approach allowing the early detection of unexpected phenomena such as the new pandemic COVID-19. For this purpose, we used epidemiological data from Johns Hopkins University to predict the trend of COVID-2019 in Lebanon. Our method is useful in calculating the probability of reaching a new record as well as studying the propagation of the disease. It also computes the probabilities of the waiting time to observe the future COVID-19 record. Our results obviously confirm the quick spread of the disease in Lebanon over a short time.

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Section: Illustration Of the Records Test On Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of records theory on the COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon: prediction and prevention

Khraibani

Kobeissi

et al. 2020

Epidemiol. Infect.

Self Cite

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“…While a detailed investigation of this topic is the subject of our future research, in this section we conduct a brief investigation of whether powerful hurricanes are sporadic events or whether they are increasing in frequency. The use of record values to detect emerging events is illustrated in papers by Khraibani, Badran, and Khraibani (2011) and Khraibani et al (2015). The authors present nonparametric exact tests based on records to detect if the occurrence of events of a new type are harbingers of a trend.…”

Section: Trends In the Occurrence Of Powerful Hurricanesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This implies that N n , the number of lower records in the sequence; { T k } 1≤k≤n should show a tendency to increase. Using this logic, Khraibani et al (2015) assume that the waiting times { T k } 1≤k≤n are independent for each k with a continuous c.d.f G k . and use N n as their test statistic.…”

Section: Trends In the Occurrence Of Powerful Hurricanesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We decided to apply the results of Khraibani et al (2015) to investigate whether the incidence rate of higher category hurricanes is increasing. To do so, instead of simply looking at all hurricanes, we look at the date that a major hurricane makes landfall in the United States and obtain the time between these landfalls (this is equivalent to the sequence { T k } in Khraibani et al 2015). The test statistic of interest is then the number of lower records in this sequence.…”

Section: Trends In the Occurrence Of Powerful Hurricanesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of hurricane extremes and record values in the Atlantic

Gulati

George

Kibria

2019

Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and A

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People who live in the state of Florida recognize the impact of hurricanes have on their lives. With the hurricane season taking up 6 months of the year, Floridians feel that their lives are divided into two seasons; "the hurricane season" and the "calm season. " Investigating hurricane risk is critical for the state of Florida; both from a socio-anthropological viewpoint and from an actuarial viewpoint. Using theory from record-breaking data, this article predicts the intensity of the next "big" storm and computes the probabilities of the waiting time for the future record. In addition to the prediction of future records, this article also considers the estimation of the extreme quantiles of the distribution of the intensities and presents a brief investigation into whether the occurrence of "intense" hurricanes is increasing. ARTICLE HISTORY

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