A nomogram to predict the risk of surgery-related pressure ulcers in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery

Abstract

Objective In this study, we aimed to establish a new nomogram score to predict the occurrence of surgery-related pressure ulcers (SRPU) in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. Methods We conducted a retrospective study among patients who underwent cardiovascular surgery between February 2016 and November 2020. Results We established a prediction model based on a logistic regression model and tested the calibration and discrimination. We included 1163 patients who had undergone cardiovascular surgery. We formulated the logistic regression model, with Logit(P) = −11.745 + 0.024 preoperative hemoglobin value + 0.118 serum sodium value − 0.014 prealbumin value − 0.213 intraoperative mean temperature − 0.058 minimum mean arterial pressure + 0.646 preoperative blood potassium value + 0.264 smoking frequency + 0.760 hypertension history + 0.536 age ≥70 years. In this model ,“+” indicates that the factor is positively related to the occurrence risk of SRPU and “−” indicates that the factor is negatively associated with SRPU risk. The predictive model and nomogram had good accuracy in estimating the risk of SRPU, with a C-index of 0.755 (95% confidence interval: 0.719–0.792). Conclusions The present model can be used to effectively screen patients with a high risk of SRPU to devise targeted nursing intervention strategies and ultimately reduce the incidence rate of SRPU.