A nomogram for predicting survival of head and neck mucosal melanoma

Abstract

Objectives We aimed to understand the clinical characteristics and better predict the prognosis of patients with mucosal melanoma of the head and neck (MMHN) using a nomogram. Methods Three hundred patients with nometastatic MMHN were included. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to analyze independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and locoregional relapse-free survival (LRRFS), and these factors were used to develop a nomogram. Concordance indexes (C-indexes), calibration plots, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were performed to test the predictive performance of the nomogram in both the primary (n = 300) and validation cohorts (n = 182). Results The primary tumor site, T stage and N stage were independent risk factors for survival and were included in the nomogram to predict the 3- and 5-year OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS in the primary cohort. The C-indexes (both > 0.700), well-fit calibration plots, and area under the ROC curve (both > 0.700) indicated the high diagnostic accuracy of the nomogram, in both the primary and validation cohorts. The patients were divided into three groups (high-risk, intermediate-risk, and low-risk groups) according to their nomogram scores. The survival curves of OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS were well separated by the risk groups in both cohorts (all P < 0.001). Conclusions The nomogram can stratify MMHN patients into clinically meaningful taxonomies to provide individualized treatment.

A Simple Nomogram for Predicting Osteoarthritis Severity in Patients with Knee Osteoarthritis

“…There is a positive correlation between MCHC and haemoglobin, and it has been reported in the literature that haemoglobin tends to decrease with age [56], so MCHC also tends to decrease with age. Age is closely related to KOA [36][37][38][39]. This finding fully explains the results of this study, which showed that with a decrease in MCHC (r = −0:2, P < 0:001), the severity of KOA increases.…”

“…The nomogram model can visualize the results of logistic regression and can be directly used to predict the individual disease risk, which is easy to popularize and apply in the clinic. Studies at home and abroad have confirmed that nomogram models can be used to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinomas, melanomas of the head and neck, gliomas, young patients with gastric cancer, and the risk of anastomotic leakage after rectal cancer surgery [34][35][36][37][38]. In the field of KOA, the prediction accuracy and clinical value of nomograms have also been confirmed, and nomograms can be used to predict the probability of replacement surgery in the late stage of KOA and the probability of complications after joint replacement [18,39].…”

Establishment and validation of a nomogram for predicting immune-related prognostic features in trunk melanoma-specific death

“…Xu et al included a 300-column study in their research on head and neck melanoma and obtained a C-index value >0.7. Xiao et al (25,33,34).…”

“…Although some studies have mentioned melanoma, no specific studies have been conducted on trunk melanoma due to its small sample size, single source of sample size, or lack of CSD risk factor assessment. So it is necessary to carry out more studies on trunk melanoma (24)(25)(26). In addition, most existing models focus on the outcome of all-cause death.…”

Prognostic model for predicting overall and cancer-specific survival among patients with superficial spreading melanoma: A SEER based study

“…[12] At present, various nomograms related to melanoma have been published in the literature, such as gastrointestinal melanoma, vulvar melanoma, skin nodular melanoma, etc., but no nomograms specifically designed for SSM have been reported. [13][14][15] Therefore, we used relevant data from the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) database to build an SSM nomogram to assess patient prognosis.…”