A nomogram based on CT texture features to predict the response of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer treated with chemotherapy

Abstract

Objective This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of computed tomography (CT) texture features in the treatment response of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) receiving palliative chemotherapy. Methods This study enrolled 84 patients with APC treated with first-line chemotherapy and conducted texture analysis on primary pancreatic tumors. 59 patients and 25 were randomly assigned to the training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The treatment response to chemotherapy was evaluated according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST1.1). The patients were divided into progressive and non-progressive groups. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) was applied for feature selection in the training cohort and a radiomics signature (RS) was calculated. A nomogram was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model incorporating the RS and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), and was internally validated using the C-index and calibration plot. We performed the decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve analysis to reflect the clinical utility of the nomogram. The nomogram was further externally confirmed in the validation cohort. Results The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the RS and CA19-9 were independent predictors (P < 0.05), and a trend was found for chemotherapy between progressive and non-progressive groups. The nomogram incorporating RS, CA19-9 and chemotherapy showed favorable discriminative ability in the training (C-index = 0.802) and validation (C-index = 0.920) cohorts. The nomogram demonstrated favorable clinical utility. Conclusion The RS of significant texture features was significantly associated with the early treatment effect of patients with APC treated with chemotherapy. Based on the RS, CA19-9 and chemotherapy, the nomogram provided a promising way to predict chemotherapeutic effects for APC patients.