A New Way that Planets Can Affect the Sun

Wolff, Charles L.; Patrone, Paul N.

doi:10.1007/s11207-010-9628-y

Cited by 49 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…The central period at 10.87 years could be generated by the solar dynamo itself by means of a dynamical synchronization process with the other two cycles or by a combination of the recurrent tidal cycles produced by Venus, Earth and Jupiter that present peaks at about 10.4 and 11.1 years. This finding suggests a planetary modulation of solar activity, as first proposed by Wolf (1859), whose physical mechanisms and additional empirical evidences are extensively discussed in a number of publications (Abreu et al, 2012;Brown, 1900;Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987;Hung, 2007;Landscheidt, 1999;Wolff and Patrone , 2010;Scafetta, 2010Scafetta, , 2012aScafetta and Willson, 2013a,b).…”

Section: Construction Of the Astronomical/solar Harmonicssupporting

confidence: 59%

Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

Scafetta

2013

Earth-Science Reviews

191

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Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records (available since 1850) reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. Equivalent oscillations are found in numerous multisecular paleoclimatic records. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, 2013), are analyzed and found not able to reconstruct this variability. In particular, from 2000 to 2013.5 a GST plateau is observed while the GCMs predicted a warming rate of about 2 o C/century. In contrast, the hypothesis that the climate is regulated by specific natural oscillations more accurately fits the GST records at multiple time scales. For example, a quasi 60-year natural oscillation simultaneously explains the 1850-1880, 1910-1940 and 1970-2000 warming periods, the 1880-1910 and 1940-1970 cooling periods and the post 2000 GST plateau. This hypothesis implies that about 50% of the ∼ 0.5 o C global surface warming observed from 1970 to 2000 was due to natural oscillations of the climate system, not to anthropogenic forcing as modeled by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs. Consequently, the climate sensitivity to CO 2 doubling should be reduced by half, for example from the 2.0-4.5 o C range (as claimed by the IPCC, 2007) to 1.0-2.3 o C with a likely median of ∼ 1.5 o C instead of ∼ 3.0 o C. Also modern paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions showing a larger preindustrial variability than the hockey-stick shaped temperature reconstructions developed in early 2000 imply a weaker anthropogenic effect and a stronger solar contribution to climatic changes. The observed natural oscillations could be driven by astronomical forcings. The ∼ 9.1 year oscillation appears to be a combination of long soli-lunar tidal oscillations, while quasi 10-11, 20 and 60 year oscillations are typically found among major solar and heliospheric oscillations driven mostly by Jupiter and Saturn movements. Solar models based on heliospheric oscillations also predict quasi secular (e.g. ∼ 115 years) and millennial (e.g. ∼ 983 years) solar oscillations, which hindcast observed climate oscillations during the Holocene. Herein I propose a semi-empirical climate model made of six specific astronomical oscillations as constructors of the natural climate variability spanning from the decadal to the millennial scales plus a 50% attenuated radiative warming component deduced from the GCM mean simulation as a measure of the anthropogenic plus volcano contribution to climatic changes. The semi-empirical model reconstructs the 1850-2013 GST patterns significantly better than any CMIP5 GCM simulation. Under the same CMIP5 anthropogenic emission scenarios, the model projects a possible 2000-2100 average warming ranging from about 0.3 o C to 1.8 o C. This range is significantly below the original CMIP5 GCM ensemble mean projections spanning from about 1 o C to 4 o C. Future research should investigate spaceclimate coupling mechanisms in order to develop more advanced analytic...

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Section: Construction Of the Astronomical/solar Harmonicssupporting

confidence: 59%

Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

Scafetta

2013

Earth-Science Reviews

191

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“…If this is so, planetary tides are able to trigger solar luminosity oscillations with a magnitude compatible with the observed TSI oscillations [94], and, consequently, may be able to modulate the solar dynamo cycle. Alternative planetary mechanisms influencing the Sun may exist; see also Wolff and Patrone [108] and Abreu et al [102].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms

Scafetta

2013

Energy & Environment

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Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related to a long millennial solar oscillation and to changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g. aerosol and greenhouse gases). However, current general circulation climate models, e.g. the CMIP5 GCMs, to be used in the AR5 IPCC Report in 2013, fail to reconstruct the observed climatic oscillations. As an alternate, an empirical model is proposed that uses: (1) a specific set of decadal, multidecadal, secular and millennial astronomic harmonics to simulate the observed climatic oscillations; (2) a 0.45 attenuation of the GCM ensemble mean simulations to model the anthropogenic and volcano forcing effects. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hind-casting the observed 1850-2012 climatic patterns. It is found that: (1) about 50-60% of the warming observed since 1850 and since 1970 was induced by natural oscillations likely resulting from harmonic astronomical forcings that are not yet included in the GCMs; (2) a 2000-2040 approximately steady projected temperature;(3) a 2000-2100 projected warming ranging between 0.3 o C and 1.6 o C, which is significantly lower than the IPCC GCM ensemble mean projected warming of 1.1 o C to 4.1 o C; ; (4) an equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling centered in 1.35 o C and varying between 0.9 o C and 2.0 o C.Cite as: Scafetta, N., Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hindcast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs. Energy & Environment: special volume 'Mechanisms of Climate Change and the AGW Concept: a critical review'

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“…A good agreement has been found between the long term cycles of solar activity and cyclicities in the planetary torque moment. In [23,24] a possible planetary impact on the 11 year cycle is also pointed out; in par ticular, perturbations inside a rotating star, when it is accelerated by orbital bodies, were obtained in [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

The 11-year cycle of solar activity and configurations of the planets

Okhlopkov

2014

Moscow Univ. Phys.

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In this paper a parameter was used, viz., the average difference between the heliocentric longitudes (ADL) of the planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. For the minimum ADL (the planets are in conjunction), as well as at the minimum deviation of the planets from a line passing through them and the Sun at the location of the planets on opposite sides from the Sun, an index was composed that uniquely describes the 11 year cycle of solar activity.Keywords: the average difference of heliocentric longitudes of planets, conjunction of planets, envelope curve of minimum values, frequency spectra, center of mass of the Solar system, solar activity.

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A New Way that Planets Can Affect the Sun

Cited by 49 publications

References 27 publications

Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles

Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms

The 11-year cycle of solar activity and configurations of the planets

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