A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All

Abstract

The basic objective of this article is to identify the priority issues that could influence Mexico's longterm economic growth path, and to outline a balanced action program necessary to effectively address these issues. It includes reforms and actions that would simultaneously achieve much higher and more inclusive growth, and would thus restore the sense of pride and optimism among Mexicans that has been eroding in recent years. The issues discussed are of such importance that the legacy of the next presidency could be determined by the administration's willingness and ability to implement the agenda outlined in this article.

Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050

“…Once a fast-growing country's citizens reach middleincome status, they will no longer accept wages low enough for low-wage manufacturing to be internationally competitive. The economy must become more dependent on innovation and differentiation, transitioning from input-driven growth to productivity-driven growth (Loser et al, 2012), but this cannot happen without developing advanced educational institutions, efficient financial systems to allocate resources, reliable public safety and pleasant living areas to attract mobile skilled workers and prevent a "brain drain," skill-training programs and social safety nets, affordable housing, sufficient and wise investment, elimination of corruption and inappropriate regulations, and free information flows (Kohli et al, 2011a). If countries cannot change their economic strategies and move up the value chain, they find themselves stuck in the middle-between rich countries that have the legal and financial base to allow for economic growth through high-value innovations and poor countries that are globally competitive because labor and other input costs are low.…”

“…The counterfactuals-which mean going back in time, say to 1980, and generating what the model would have predicted instead of the actual historical data had some scenarios been calculated starting then-are generated as follows: we use as our example the background work for Loser et al (2012), for which the model was run from 1980 with the rest of the world following its actual historical path, but with Mexico evolving after 1980 according to alternate hypothetical scenarios. To calculate this, the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 4, 2 (2012): 91-153 historical data for all projected series is deleted for Mexico but maintained for the rest of the world, and the projections in Sections 3.1-3.8 and Sections 3.10-3.12 are calculated for only Mexico.…”

The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery

“…This assumption, on the counterfactual, is frequently found in academic literature. The studies performed by Kohli, Szyf and Arnold (2012) and Loser and Fajgenbaum (2012) are examples of similar approaches to developing counterfactual values for predicting future worldwide GDP based on historical relationships. Similarly, Fingleton and Palombi (2013) used historical coefficients to obtain counterfactual wage levels to explore how local economies retain their long-run growth after a major shock.…”