A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists

Vishnevsky, Anatoly; Щербакова, Екатерина Михайловна

doi:10.3897/j.ruje.4.30166

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The population of Russia has been declining since the early 1990s, while the working-age population started to decline in the 2010s (Vishnevsky and Scherbakova, 2018). Forecasts are even more alarming (Fig.…”

Section: Demographic Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

Dąbrowski¹

2019

RUJEC

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In the decade of the 2010s, the pace of economic growth in Russia slowed down to an annual rate of below 2% and most forecasts suggest that this is will be the new “normal” for the Russian economy at least in the medium-term. While politically and socially disappointing, such a growth slowdown is unavoidable due to adverse demographic trends. A combination of a shrinking working-age population and population aging must lead to a lower growth pace as compared to the period when the working-age population was still increasing and the effects of population aging were limited (the decade of the 2000s). Compensatory measures such as a gradual increase in the retirement age and an open labor migration policy, although economically positive, can only partly mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking domestic labor force. In this respect, Russia does not differ from other European countries and some Asian countries. However, demography and shrinking labor supply cannot fully explain low potential growth. Stagnation in total factor productivity is another reason. It results from a poor business and investment climate, difficulty in diversifying away from the dominant role of the hydrocarbon sector, and deteriorating political and economic relations with the US and EU which limit trade, investment and innovation opportunities. To increase its potential growth, Russia needs comprehensive economic and institutional reforms that, in turn, will be conditioned by political reforms and by improved economic and political relationships with the US, the EU and Russia’s neighbors.

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Section: Demographic Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

Dąbrowski¹

2019

RUJEC

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“…Many modern scientists identify poverty as an issue of the modern period of social development and study the processes going on in the social sphere. Various aspects of the influence of economic, social, and demographic policy on the standard of living of the population were studied by Case and Deaton [2], Grinberg and Komolov [3], Kleiner [4], Rutkowski [5], Shevyakov [6], Shcherbakova and Vishnevsky [7], Zakharov [8].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the inequality of people at risk at the regional level

Lesnichaya

Kolchina

2021

E3S Web Conf.

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The phenomenon of poverty occurs in any modern society. The avalanche-like increase of this phenomenon has become the most important problem of social life. Unfortunately, the assessment of the poverty rate is often reduced to the indicator of cost of living, which reflects only the satisfaction of physiological requirements. This indicator is the base of targeted social assistance determination. Therefore, the main condition for providing this type of support is the identification of categories of deprived low-income families. The successful practice of “region’s poverty profile building” was implemented In Rostov region. It aimed at identifying low-income population with maximum decomposition of needy population characteristics. The article proposes a mechanism for improving this service by expanding the typology of low-income population, including the “risk” categories, in other words people who receive wages above the minimum of subsistence, but do not have their own property. On the base of statistical analysis, the study proved the need to include this category of households in the register of those who are eligible for compulsory social support by the authorities, which can significantly affect the improvement in their quality of life. Subsequently, it is possible to amend federal legislation and region’s poverty profile.

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Population Dynamics in Russia in the Context of Global Trends

Щербакова

2022

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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— The article examines the current demographic trends in Russia as compared to population changes in the world and its major regions based on data from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), Eurostat, and the UN Population Division. It is shown that in terms of a number of characteristics of population reproduction—low fertility, ageing population structure, natural population decline—Russia is quite similar to the developed countries group. However, Russia is behind many countries in reducing the mortality rate of the middle-aged and older population, especially in men, and, correspondingly, in life expectancy for all age groups, which results in a noticeable increase in natural population decline and in deformation of the sex structure of the population. The specifics of the age structure of the Russian population that have been formed by a number of demographic waves are such that changes in the number of births and in age group sizes come in waves; this trend will continue in the coming decades. The article also analyzes excess mortality in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison with similar data for the European Union (EU-27) and compares healthy life expectancy estimates for Russia, the entire world, individual countries, and different groups of countries by income.

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A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists

Cited by 6 publications

References 5 publications

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

Analysis of the inequality of people at risk at the regional level

Population Dynamics in Russia in the Context of Global Trends

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