“…These failures cannot be put down to "human error" or "faulty fittings" (Cerf and Davey, 2001;Davey, 2010Davey, , 2011. In recent years Davey and co-workers (Davey et al, , 2013Davey, 2010Davey, , 2011Patil, 2006;Patil et al, 2005) have illustrated a new risk assessment that addresses this that they titled Friday 13th (Fr 13) failure. A key insight with Fr 13 risk assessments is that an accumulation of stochastic (random) changes in otherwise well-operated continuous plant can accumulate in one-direction and unexpectedly leverage unwanted and sudden (surprise) change in product or process.…”