A new regime divide? Partisan affect and attitudes towards democratic backsliding

Abstract

Affective polarization has been posited as a key explanation for citizens’ tolerance towards democratic backsliding. Our study adopts the opposite perspective, theorizing partisan-based affective divides not as a cause of backsliding, but its consequence. We contend that backsliding crystallizes an affective dislike among opposition supporters towards the governing party and its supporters that stems from a divide over democracy itself. To explore this argument, we leverage original survey data collected in Hungary and Poland. Our results point to a government-opposition divide in partisan affect and show how liberal democratic attitudes especially among opposition party supporters play into this dynamic. We submit that where backsliding persists over a longer period, this process can shift even multi-party systems towards increasing bipolarity along what we term a ‘democratic divide.’ Ultimately, our findings suggest that affective polarization may play a positive role in backsliding contexts by uniting the opposition around the defense of democracy.

Affective polarization in Europe

“…Most notably, this includes the work of Hobolt et al (2021) on Brexit identities, but also encompasses political identities based on COVID, for example, in the form of support and opposition to containment measures and vaccination (Bor et al, 2023;Henkel et al, 2023) and based on Catalan pro-and anti-independence stances (Hierro and Gallego, 2018;Balcells and Kuo, 2023) or European identities (Hahm et al, 2023). Relevant political identities could also encompass democracy and the party system itself, with social identities forming around opposition or support to political elites or democratic institutions (Moreno, 2019;Meléndez, 2022;Gessler and Wunsch, 2023;Schedler, 2023). Populism and anti-populism itself can also provide the basis for social divides (Moffitt, 2018).…”

Presentación | Breve marco teórico: Relatos, identidades y desapego hacia la democracia

“…En este punto, se necesita una distinción conceptual entre las nociones de fatiga democrática y crisis democrática. La fatiga democrática se refiere a un proceso que ocurre al nivel de la opinión pública: la caída en la satisfacción y en el apoyo a la democracia son sus principales indicadores, aunque el apoyo por un partido populista (Wegscheider at al., 2023) y la tolerancia a un retroceso democrático (Gessler y Wunsch, 2023) son otros. Una crisis democrática (a veces también llamada "desdemocratización", "fracaso democrático" o "retroceso democrático") es analíticamente diferente y conforma un fenómeno que se produce a nivel de las instituciones: el debilitamiento de la independencia del poder judicial o el ataque al Congreso son indicadores típicos de una crisis democrática.…”

Presentation | Brief theoretical framework: Tales, Identities and Detachment toward Democracy

“…In addition to this indicator, there are other indicators of the erosion of the legitimacy of democracy that accompany what has been called "democratic fatigue" (e.g., García-Rivero 2023). Thus, dissatisfaction with democracy, along with other expressions of discomfort with democracy such as tolerance for democratic backsliding (Gessler and Wunsch, 2023), support for authoritarian forms of rule such as a strong leader (Donovan, 2021) and support for populist parties (Wegscheider et al, 2023), seem to characterize different countries around the world. Regarding the consequences for the stability of democracies as a political regime, exploring the foundations of such democratic malaise at public opinion level is a central challenge for political science.…”