A new multiple integral model for water shortage risk assessment and its application in Beijing, China

Qian, Longxia; Zhang, Ren; Mei, Hong; Wang, Hongrui; Yang, Lizhi

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1955-8

Cited by 21 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Nevertheless, the societal component is often included in a manner that is broad enough and goes sufficiently beyond technicalities to allow a SES analysis. Geographically, water resources vulnerability assessments have had either national (Chang et al, ), subnational (Qian et al, ; Wan et al, ), or predominantly, a regional focus (Babel & Wahid, ; Cai et al, ; Huang et al, ; Kattelus et al, ; Pascual et al, ; Varis & Kummu, ). Globally, only one freshwater vulnerability analysis has been conducted thus far (Padowski et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Planet's Stressed River Basins: Too Much Pressure or Too Little Adaptive Capacity?

2019

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Freshwater is one of the most critical elements for sustainable development of ecosystems and societies. River basins, concomitant with administrative zones, form a common unit for freshwater management. So far, no comprehensive, global analysis exists that would link the ecological challenges of the planet's river basins to the capacity of the societies to cope with them. We address this gap by performing a geospatial resilience analysis for a global set of 541 river basins. We use the social‐ecological systems approach by relating three ecological vulnerability factors (human footprint, natural hazards, and water scarcity) with three adaptive capacity factors (governance, economy, and human development), based on temporal trajectories from 1990 to 2015. Additionally, we examine resilience by subtracting ecological vulnerability from adaptive capacity. The most striking result is the fundamentally different patterns of controlling factors of the resilience in different developing regions, particularly those of Africa and Asia. Their root causes are particularly low adaptive capacity in Africa and high ecological vulnerability in Asia. Alarmingly, the difference between those continents grew within the study period. Finally, this study highlights the rapid dynamics of adaptive capacity in comparison to ecological vulnerability, the latter having more inertia. Their fragile balance is of our interest; they can either support or counteract each other depending on the geographic location.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Planet's Stressed River Basins: Too Much Pressure or Too Little Adaptive Capacity?

2019

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“…As for risk, many scholars have provided different definitions and interpretations according to the characteristics of different disciplines [8][9][10]. A widely accepted view is that the risk is usually understood as a combination of the probability level of a threat activation and the level of its effects [11,12]. The main phase of risk response consists of dealing with risk and risk monitoring.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Water Resources and Energy Security Based on the Cloud Model: A Case Study of China in 2020

Yang

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2021

Water

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With the rapid development of economy and society, China’s demand for water resources and energy is increasing, and the supply situation is becoming increasingly severe. The correlation and binding characteristics between the two have become increasingly prominent, which will become bottlenecks in sustainable economic and social development in the future. In this paper, the Liang–Kleeman method was used to screen the risk factors of water resources and energy security, and then four major risk factors were selected. Based on the cloud model, the water resource and energy security risk assessment models were constructed combined with the predicted values using GM (1,1) and Pearson III curve methods, and the water resource and energy security risks of 30 provinces (cities) in 2020 were quantitatively assessed. The risk assessment results showed that the risk level zoning of water resource shortage with different guarantee rates in most regions has undergone little change, but the spatial distribution was quite different, showing the characteristics of “low in the South and high in the North”. When the guarantee rate changed from P = 25% to P = 95%, the risk level of water shortage in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hainan, Jilin, Ningxia and Nei Monggol significantly increased, and the spatial distribution of energy security risk and water resource shortage risk was obviously inconsistent.

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“…At present, many countries in the world are facing serious water shortage, which has many adverse effects on human life and economic activities (Abedin et al 2019;Thao et al 2019;Yang et al 2015;Alameddine et al 2017). It is of great importance to predict or assess the water shortage risk so as to take some effective measures to reduce risk and its losses (Qian et al 2016;Chen and Li 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A water shortage risk predicting model through estimating mutual information values between risk and risk factors

et al. 2021

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It is of great importance to predict or assess the water shortage risk to take some effective measures to reduce risk and losses. A new method of selecting water shortage risk factors is proposed according to the definition of a matrix-based Renyi's -order entropy in this paper. Important factors were detected in terms of the values of mutual information between water shortage risk and risk factors. Furthermore, a logistic regression model is built to predict water shortage risk. Risks in Beijing during the period of 1979-2017 are evaluated to verify the performance of the model. Water consumption per GDP, water resources per capita and precipitation are the sensitive factors for water shortage risk. Water shortage risks in 2020 under different situations of precipitation are calculated by using the model. The result shows that the water shortage risk is greater than 0.9 with a possibility of 0.56 and greater than 0.5 with a possibility of 0.56 without consideration of the transferred and reclaimed water use. The average water shortage risk declines considerably by using the transferred and reclaimed water. However, the water shortage risk still exceeds 0.9 with a possibility of 0.32. The predicted risks are consistent with the observed risks in 2020 under different conditions of precipitation.

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A new multiple integral model for water shortage risk assessment and its application in Beijing, China

Cited by 21 publications

References 24 publications

The Planet's Stressed River Basins: Too Much Pressure or Too Little Adaptive Capacity?

The Planet's Stressed River Basins: Too Much Pressure or Too Little Adaptive Capacity?

Risk Assessment of Water Resources and Energy Security Based on the Cloud Model: A Case Study of China in 2020

A water shortage risk predicting model through estimating mutual information values between risk and risk factors

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