A New Model for Building Energy Modeling and Management Using Predictive Analytics: Partitioned Hierarchical Multitask Regression (PHMR)

Abstract

Buildings are major consumers of energy, accounting for a significant proportion of total energy use worldwide. This substantial energy consumption not only leads to increased operational costs but also contributes to environmental concerns such as greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, building energy consumption accounts for about 40% of total energy use, highlighting the importance of efficient energy management. Therefore, accurate prediction of energy usage in buildings is crucial. However, accurate prediction of building energy consumption remains a challenge due to the intricate interaction of indoor and outdoor variables. This study introduces the Partitioned Hierarchical Multitask Regression (PHMR), an innovative model integrating recursive partition regression (RPR) with multitask learning (hierML). PHMR adeptly predicts building energy consumption by integrating both indoor factors, such as building design and operational variables, and outdoor environmental influences. Rigorous simulation studies illustrate PHMR’s efficacy. It outperforms traditional single-predictor regression models, achieving a 32.88% to 41.80% higher prediction accuracy, especially in scenarios with limited training data. This highlights PHMR’s robustness and adaptability. The practical application of PHMR in managing a modular house’s Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system in Spain resulted in a 37% improvement in prediction accuracy. This significant efficiency gain is evidenced by a high Pearson correlation coefficient (0.8) between PHMR’s predictions and actual energy consumption. PHMR not only offers precise predictions for energy consumption but also facilitates operational cost reductions, thereby enhancing sustainability in building energy management. Its application in a real-world setting demonstrates the model’s potential as a valuable tool for architects, engineers, and facility managers in designing and maintaining energy-efficient buildings. The model’s integration of comprehensive data analysis with domain-specific knowledge positions it as a crucial asset in advancing sustainable energy practices in the building sector.