A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities

Barbolini, Massimiliano; Cappabianca, F.; Savi, F.

doi:10.1023/b:geop.0000006084.45248.22

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…the formation of the powder part of the flow and vertical velocities in the dense flow) are thus ignored, a realistic representation of the avalanche can be obtained. Computation times are much more reasonable, allowing Monte Carlo simulations to be implemented (Barbolini and others, 2003).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term avalanche hazard assessment with a Bayesian depth-averaged propagation model

Eckert¹,

Naaïm²,

Parent

2010

J. Glaciol.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term avalanche hazard assessment with a Bayesian depth-averaged propagation model

Eckert¹,

Naaïm²,

Parent

2010

J. Glaciol.

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“…Also, the relationship between µ H 72 and altitude A is considered to define homogeneity, because µ H 72 often depends on altitude inside homogeneous regions (e.g. Barbolini et al, 2003;Bocchiola et al, 2006 Because µ H 72 can be estimated from the observed data at a single site, its accuracy depends on the number of observed years at the specific site. A framework is drawn here to quantify the accuracy of the T -years quantile estimates depending on the number of the available recorded years, so providing an accuracy driven sampling strategy.…”

Section: T Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Skaugen, 1999;Bocchiola et al, 2007) and three day snow depth for avalanche hazard mapping (e.g. Barbolini et al, 2002;Barbolini et al, 2003;Bocchiola et al, 2006), because it provides a considerable net gain in accuracy. Here, it will be shown that proposed regional approach results in a decrease of σ H 72i T for the reference return period T =300 years up to 300% or so with respect to the single site analysis.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional evaluation of three day snow depth for avalanche hazard mapping in Switzerland

Bocchiola

Janetti

Gorni

et al. 2008

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The distribution of the maximum annual three day snow fall depth H 72 , used for avalanche hazard mapping according to the Swiss procedure (Sp), is investigated for a network of 124 stations in the Alpine part of Switzerland, using a data set dating back to 1931. Stationarity in time is investigated, showing in practice no significant trend for the considered period. Building on previous studies about climatology of Switzerland and using an iterative approach based on statistical tests for regional homogeneity and scaling of H 72 with altitude, seven homogenous regions are identified. A regional approach based on the index value is then developed to estimate the T -years return period quantiles of H 72 at each single site i, H 72i (T ). The index value is the single site sample average µ H 72i . The dimensionless values of H * 72i =H 72i /µ H 72i are grouped in one sample for each region and their frequency of occurrence is accommodated by a General Extreme Value, GEV, probability distribution, including Gumbel. The proposed distributions, valid in each site of the homogeneous regions, can be used to assess the T -years return period quantiles of H * 72i . It is shown that the value of H 72i (T ) estimated with the regional approach is more accurate than that calculated by single site distribution fitting, particularly for high return periods. A sampling strategy based on accuracy is also suggested to estimate the single site index value, i.e. the sample average µ H 72i , critical for the evaluation of the distribution of H 72i . The proposed regional approach is valuable because it gives more accurate snow depth input to dynamics models than the present procedure based on single site analysis, so decreasing uncertainty in hazard mapping procedure.

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“…While the stochastic model developed here incorporated RP, it also enabled observation of the probability of one or more outbreaks occurring within a specified time period. The stochastic approach therefore has a higher resolution than RP alone for assessing the impact of the new agency (Barbolini et al 2003).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Assessment of an Independent Agency for Animal Health in England

Gormley

Rocks

Pollard

2013

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal

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The applicability of a stochastic model was explored to assess the impact of a new independent agency for animal health in England in terms of the cost of animal disease outbreaks. The new agency was proposed to take responsibility for animal disease management in England. The stochastic model estimates the likelihood that the proposed new agency would face animal disease outbreaks of major and minor magnitude; and how many outbreaks of each magnitude, within its first 30 years of operation. Large variability in the potential total cost of the new agency was attributable to the possibility of an outbreak of an unknown major disease, although Bluetongue, Foot and Mouth Disease, and Avian Influenza were also influential. The results show that if the new agency reduces disease costs by even 0.5%, this could benefit society by an estimated £21 million per year. The stochastic approach offers a method for dealing with uncertainties in any continuing deliberations regarding the proposed new agency, resulting in a potential annual gain of £73 million ranging to an annual loss of £144 million.

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A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities

Cited by 16 publications

References 8 publications

Long-term avalanche hazard assessment with a Bayesian depth-averaged propagation model

Long-term avalanche hazard assessment with a Bayesian depth-averaged propagation model

Regional evaluation of three day snow depth for avalanche hazard mapping in Switzerland

Impact Assessment of an Independent Agency for Animal Health in England

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